Northeast Florida Market Stats | November 2023

December 21, 2023


“The Son of God became a man to enable men to become sons of God.” C.S. Lewis


Enjoy your family, friends and all the joy of Christmas, but don’t forget the reason we celebrate.


As interesting and crazy as the real estate market has been in 2023, I am happy to welcome 2024. I have listened to several forecasts from experts, and I will share their thoughts.


First, we will review November 2023 market stats from the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR). The median sales price of $367,495 is up 7.2% over last November and up 5.0% over this October. The prices have not dropped even with high mortgage rates and home prices becoming unaffordable for many.


The pending sales and closings are down. There were 1,766 closed sales down 16.9% from October. The pending sales of 1,669 are down 18.7% from October. Many buyers are on the sidelines unable or unwilling to deal with the high and fluctuating mortgage interest rates.


The good news is mortgage interest rates have been declining for the last seven weeks. “The average rate on a 30-year mortgage dropped to 6.95% from 7.03% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday.” (December 14, 2023) It would be so important to the housing market to get some stability with the rates so buyers and sellers can make more informed decisions.


Dr. Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist is forecasting 4.71M existing home sales in 2024, up 13.5% from 4.1M anticipated in 2023. Yun forecasts new home construction sales will increase around 19%.


Brian Buffini, a real estate trainer and expert, believes the 2023 homes sales will come in around 3.9M, which is down 23.5% from 2022. He forecasts 4.6M homes sales in 2024 which is an 18% increase.


Dr. Yun forecasts the average mortgage rate for 2024 will be 6.3%. He believes it will start the year higher and decline as the year progresses. Brian Buffini forecasts we will be at 5.75% at the end of 2024.


Both are trusted sources and whether it is a 13.5% or 18% increase in transactions, it should be a much better year. They seem to be similar in the predictions of mortgage interest rates. They both also agree that there is a lot of pent-up demand for sellers to move. They have stayed in place for two years while family circumstances have changed with births, deaths, marriages, and divorces.


Wishing you and your family a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Looking forward to seeing what 2024 will bring.



Sharon P. Davidson


Comments are closed.

Davidson Realty