Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

October 18, 2022

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“When I stand before God at the end of my life, I would hope that I would not have a single bit of talent left, and could say, ‘I used everything you gave me’.” Erma Bombeck

 

I had to share one of my favorite quotes.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market stats for September 2022 show home prices declining slightly, closed sales and pending sales declining, days on the market, and active inventory increasing.

 

The median sales price for all property types for NEFAR is $347,995 which is down 2% from $355,000 in August. For single-family homes by county compared to the previous month:

 

Duval – $335,000 down 1.5%

 

Clay – $335,990 down 2.9%

 

St. Johns – $561,495 up 1.2%

 

Putnam – $210,725 down 10.3%

 

Nassau – $408,990 up 0.2%

 

Mark Rosener, NEFAR President said, “I anticipate that the median price will continue to fluctuate month to month in the 3-5% range in either direction for the balance of the year.”

 

Closed sales of 2,032 is down 23.2% from 2,647 closings in August. Pending sales of 2,100 are down 17.1% from 2,533 sales in August. Mark said “Closed and pending unit sales suffered from Hurricane Ian’s impact when the powerful storm interrupted services during the last week of the month, a time when many properties close and/or go under contract. Many of the properties scheduled to close in that last week should shift to close in the first half of October.” The insurance companies will not write policies when a storm is near, and some properties must be reinspected before they will insure.

 

The active inventory increased from 6,015 in August to 6,789 in September, a 12.9% increase. The months supply of inventory increased from 2.3 months of supply to 3.3 months, a 47% increase.

 

In summary, the prices have declined slightly, the closings and sales have decreased, and inventory has increased. Home buyers are more cautious and rising mortgage rates have impacted their purchasing power. The buyers have more homes to choose from and more negotiation room. The sellers have lost a little edge, but the prices are still much higher than they were one or two years ago.

 

It is a great time to buy or sell. Please let us know if we can assist you in any way.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

September 16, 2022

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“Kindness is the language which the deaf can hear and the blind can see.” Mark Twain

 

We continue to see a transition in our local housing market. The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market review for August shows a slight decline in median prices and more time on the market to sell a home.

 

The median sales price of $358,740 is down 1.9% from last month’s price of $365,750. However, we are still up 18.4% over last year. Only 19.1% of properties closed over list price in August compared to 26.2% in July. The buyers have more options and more bargaining power as the market changes.

 

Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist, Mark Zandi predicts the interest rate increases will cause a housing correction, but not a crash. He said the fundamentals remain strong with vacancy rates at all-time lows, mortgage underwriting quality high and most loans are 30-year or 15-year fixed loans.

 

Closed sales in August of 2,522 were flat with closings in July of 2,517. We did see more buyers coming into the market with pending sales of 2,561 an increase of 7.6% over July’s 2,380.

 

Active inventory moved up slightly from 6,716 homes in July to 6,756 in August. We still have 2.7 months supply of inventory the same as July. Five to six months of inventory is a balanced market.

 

The median days on the market went from 24 days in July to 31 days in August. Sellers are having to adjust their mindset and price their home in line with current comparable sales. Many sellers don’t see this at first and must reduce their price to get showings and offers.

 

Many buyers are in a wait-and-see mode and may stay that way until after the mid-term elections, but supply is still very low and the market continues to adjust.

 

We have sold out the sporting clay teams for our Davidson Cares Clay Day on October 20th; however, you can still show your kindness to five local charities by purchasing a raffle ticket at DavidsonCares.com. We have our YETI cooler with adult beverages and a 12-gauge Beretta shotgun. Only 100 tickets are being sold for each. You do not have to be present to win when we draw at the shoot. Thank you to everyone who supports us every year!

 

Football is back and baseball is getting close to the playoffs. It is a great time of the year to live in northeast Florida. If we can assist you with any of your real estate needs, please let us know.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Update

August 22, 2022

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“The measure of intelligence is the ability to change” -Albert Einstein

Those of us in the real estate industry must be very intelligent since our market keeps changing continuously. We have gone from calming buyers who lost out on many homes in multiple offer situations to educating sellers that it will take longer to sell their home and it must be priced properly within a matter of weeks.

 

There are positives to the changes we are seeing. Buyers have more choices of homes and can negotiate with the sellers. The sellers are seeing a less hectic sales process.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market review for July shows prices are stabilizing, pending and closed sales have dropped, and inventory is increasing.

 

The median sales price for all property types in all local counties is $368,000 which did not change from June. The price is up 20.7% from last July.

 

Nationally, the median sales price of $403,800 for July was 10.8% higher than the previous year. Earlier in 2022, prices were climbing around 20% annually, and before the pandemic prices were rising about 5% annually.

 

There were 2,419 closed sales in July, down 27.4% from last year and 23.3% from June when there were 3,154 closings. There were 2,379 pending sales in July down 32.0% from last year and 12.1% from June when there were 2,707 contracts written.

 

In my opinion, higher housing prices, rapid increase in mortgage rates, stock market adjustment, and the national media scaring everyone with headlines of a housing crash kept most homebuyers on the sidelines. This week our company has seen more contracts written than we have seen in the last few weeks. Not quite sure what to expect next, but it seems like some buyers are coming back into the market.

 

The active inventory is at 6,312 homes which is up 23.1% from last year and 5.9% from June. The months supply of inventory is at 2.6 months which is up 69.7% from last year and 38.1% from June. A 5 to 6 months supply of inventory is considered a balanced market.

 

Change is hard, but a more balanced market is good for everyone. Please let us know if we can help you in any way with your real estate needs.

 

Our Davidson Cares Clay Day is October 20th this year. Please go to DavidsonCares.com to sign up to shoot or buy a raffle ticket supporting several awesome local charities.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

July 18, 2022

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“If you don’t like something, change it. If you can’t change it, change your attitude.” — Maya Angelou

Every headline seems to be negative about the economy and the housing market. If we can’t change the situation, we need to change our attitude about it.

 

This morning we saw that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 9.1% from a year earlier. Housing has the largest impact of any input on the CPI at roughly 40%. The Federal Reserve is very focused on bringing down inflation. As such, they are determined to bring down housing prices by raising interest rates.

 

The June market review from the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors does show signs of the market slowing. Closed and pending sales are down this month and inventory has increased. However, the median sales price for all property types in Northeast Florida of $369,229 continues to rise. It is up 23.1% over last year and 2.6% over May.

 

Experts are not expecting prices to decline but rather that they may increase at a more moderate rate. Forecasts from seven major industry groups were predicting an average of 8% increase in prices for 2022.

 

The median days on the market increased from 13 days to 19 days. This is still very low compared to historical data.

 

The closed sales of 2,968 is down 18.8% from last year and 3.1% from May when there were 3,062 closed sales. Pending sales of 2,748 are down 19.4% from last year and 11.6% from May’s 3,109.

 

The active inventory is 5,508 homes up 15.2% from last year and 20.6% from May’s 4,566. This equates to 1.9 months supply of homes up 24.5% from 1.5 months in May.

 

This is good news for buyers as they have more homes to choose from and not as many competing offers. Sellers may see their home stay on the market a little longer and not have as many offers, but there is still strong demand and low inventory.

 

If you have a change in your circumstances and need to buy or sell, don’t let all the negative headlines keep you from making the correct life decisions. Enjoy your summer and please let us know if we can assist you in any way.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

June 29, 2022

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“My father gave me the greatest gift anyone could give another person, he believed in me.” Jim Valvano

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market stats for May are not showing many changes in the local real estate market, but I believe we will see a moderation in the market in future reports.

 

The median sales price for all property types in all 6 counties is $360,000 which is up 24.6% over last year and 2.9% over April. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said recently “Home prices are still hitting new highs, but the pace of appreciation is not likely to continue. It’s just inevitable that home price appreciation will slow down in upcoming months.”

 

We are seeing sellers reduce prices if they are starting out with unrealistic pricing. Fewer buyers are offering extra incentives such as waiving appraisal contingencies and seller closings costs. I agree that we will see slower price appreciation in the coming months.

 

There were 41.3 % of the closings over list price. This is up 13.2% from last year and up slightly from 41.2% last month. This percentage should also come down in the future.

 

There were 4,002 new listings in May up 4.4% from last year and 7.1% from April. The active inventory of homes available were 4,233 which is still down 4.4% from last year but up 11.2% from last month. The months supply of inventory moved from 1.3 months in April up to 1.4 months.

 

I continue to see headlines of the number of resales and new homes dropping; however, it is hard for me to really understand clearly because inventory is so constrained. It is difficult to know if there would be more sales if there were more homes available.

 

There were 2,936 closed sales in May which is down 14.8% from last year and up 0.4% from April. There were 3,097 pending sales which is down 14.3% from last year and up 1.4% from April.

 

To summarize, while the supply of homes available and the days on market are still very low and home prices continuing to increase; the market is showing signs of change with higher interest rates and the stock market moving into bear market territory. In my opinion, It is very hard to predict the amount of change we will see since we are still in such a low inventory situation.

 

Happy Independence Day! Have a wonderful summer and please let us know if we can help you with any real estate needs.

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