“Love the giver more than the gift.” – Brigham Young

A quote to live by whether a human giver or our one true holy God.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for November continue to show the median sales price stabilizing. The number of closed sales and pending sales are down, and the active inventory is up slightly. I believe everyone was shocked by the speed of the change in the real estate market.

The median sales price is $340,000 for November which is down 4.2% from the previous month and up 5.3% from the previous year. The uncertainty and volatility in housing market metrics have economists and forecasters predicting divergent outcomes for the 2023 national housing market.

· Redfin Corp predicts home prices will fall 4%.

· Zillow Group Inc. predicts home prices to remain flat.

· Realtor.com predicts home prices to appreciate 5.4%.

· Lawrence Yun, chief economist National Association of Realtors predicts prices to increase 1%.

· Fannie Mae is predicting prices to fall 1.5%.

· Capital Economics is predicting a fall of 8%.

· Wells Fargo & Co. is predicting a 5.5% decline.

I think everyone agrees in some areas prices will increase and others decrease, but it doesn’t look like the gloom and doom headlines we are seeing.

All the predictions I have seen are for fewer transactions in 2023. Realtor.com is predicting the Jacksonville MSA to have 3% fewer sales in 2023, but prices will increase 4.6%.

The active inventory is 7,019 which is up 1.3% from the previous month. The months supply of inventory is 3.8 months which is up 32% from 2.8 months in October. It appears many buyers and sellers are staying put right now.

Soaring rents have forced millions of millennials to move back in with their parents. A recent survey by Pollfish of 1,200 people estimated one in four millennials are living with their parents. That’s equivalent to about 18 million people between the ages of 26 and 41. Some economists are predicting a great looming demand as household formation will rise and there are not enough housing units at affordable prices.

As we enter 2023, we will see which predictions are the closest. Please let us know if you are considering an investment property or need to buy, sell, or rent. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

“Reflect upon your present blessings—of which every man has many—not on your past misfortunes, of which all men have some.” —Charles Dickens

Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday; I love to reflect upon my blessings.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market stats for October continue to show the median sales price stabilizing. Since April, the median price has gone slightly above or below $350,000 each month and ended at $355,000 for October.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun recently spoke at the NAR conference and said “For most parts of the country, home price are holding steady since available inventory is extremely low. Some places are experiencing price gains, while some places, most notably in California, are seeing prices pull back.”

Yun mentioned the difference between current market conditions and the Great Recession. “Housing inventory is about a quarter of what it was in 2008. Distressed property sales are almost non-existent, at just 2%, and nowhere near the 30% mark seen during the housing crash. Short sales are almost impossible because of the significant price appreciation of the last two years.”

There were 2,344 closed sales in October which is down 27.1% from last year but an increase of 11% from September when Hurricane Ian had some impact. Pending Sales of 1,968 were almost the same as September when we had 2,029 pending sales.

Active inventory is at 7,237 properties which is up 18.2% from the 6,125 properties in September. We now have 3.1 months supply of inventory compared to 2.9 months in September. Five to six months of inventory is a balanced market.

Lawrence Yun expects home sales to decline by 7% in 2023 with the national median home price increasing by 1%, with some markets experiencing price gains and others price declines.

The prices are stabilizing, the closings and pending sales are down, inventory is up but still below pre-pandemic norms. It appears that buyers are continuing to buy homes just not at the frenetic pace we have seen for the last two years.

Wishing you and your family a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday!