Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

July 18, 2022

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“If you don’t like something, change it. If you can’t change it, change your attitude.” — Maya Angelou

Every headline seems to be negative about the economy and the housing market. If we can’t change the situation, we need to change our attitude about it.

 

This morning we saw that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 9.1% from a year earlier. Housing has the largest impact of any input on the CPI at roughly 40%. The Federal Reserve is very focused on bringing down inflation. As such, they are determined to bring down housing prices by raising interest rates.

 

The June market review from the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors does show signs of the market slowing. Closed and pending sales are down this month and inventory has increased. However, the median sales price for all property types in Northeast Florida of $369,229 continues to rise. It is up 23.1% over last year and 2.6% over May.

 

Experts are not expecting prices to decline but rather that they may increase at a more moderate rate. Forecasts from seven major industry groups were predicting an average of 8% increase in prices for 2022.

 

The median days on the market increased from 13 days to 19 days. This is still very low compared to historical data.

 

The closed sales of 2,968 is down 18.8% from last year and 3.1% from May when there were 3,062 closed sales. Pending sales of 2,748 are down 19.4% from last year and 11.6% from May’s 3,109.

 

The active inventory is 5,508 homes up 15.2% from last year and 20.6% from May’s 4,566. This equates to 1.9 months supply of homes up 24.5% from 1.5 months in May.

 

This is good news for buyers as they have more homes to choose from and not as many competing offers. Sellers may see their home stay on the market a little longer and not have as many offers, but there is still strong demand and low inventory.

 

If you have a change in your circumstances and need to buy or sell, don’t let all the negative headlines keep you from making the correct life decisions. Enjoy your summer and please let us know if we can assist you in any way.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

June 29, 2022

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“My father gave me the greatest gift anyone could give another person, he believed in me.” Jim Valvano

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market stats for May are not showing many changes in the local real estate market, but I believe we will see a moderation in the market in future reports.

 

The median sales price for all property types in all 6 counties is $360,000 which is up 24.6% over last year and 2.9% over April. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said recently “Home prices are still hitting new highs, but the pace of appreciation is not likely to continue. It’s just inevitable that home price appreciation will slow down in upcoming months.”

 

We are seeing sellers reduce prices if they are starting out with unrealistic pricing. Fewer buyers are offering extra incentives such as waiving appraisal contingencies and seller closings costs. I agree that we will see slower price appreciation in the coming months.

 

There were 41.3 % of the closings over list price. This is up 13.2% from last year and up slightly from 41.2% last month. This percentage should also come down in the future.

 

There were 4,002 new listings in May up 4.4% from last year and 7.1% from April. The active inventory of homes available were 4,233 which is still down 4.4% from last year but up 11.2% from last month. The months supply of inventory moved from 1.3 months in April up to 1.4 months.

 

I continue to see headlines of the number of resales and new homes dropping; however, it is hard for me to really understand clearly because inventory is so constrained. It is difficult to know if there would be more sales if there were more homes available.

 

There were 2,936 closed sales in May which is down 14.8% from last year and up 0.4% from April. There were 3,097 pending sales which is down 14.3% from last year and up 1.4% from April.

 

To summarize, while the supply of homes available and the days on market are still very low and home prices continuing to increase; the market is showing signs of change with higher interest rates and the stock market moving into bear market territory. In my opinion, It is very hard to predict the amount of change we will see since we are still in such a low inventory situation.

 

Happy Independence Day! Have a wonderful summer and please let us know if we can help you with any real estate needs.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

May 23, 2022

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“You will never see the end, if you give up in the middle.” – Joyce Meyer

 

I can’t wait to see where our housing market is going next.

 

In a recent Business Journal article “Observers and economists are cautiously optimistic that more inventory will hit the market in the coming months, which, combined with potentially fewer buyers because of rising mortgage rates and home prices, should help moderate the market.” We will be watching metrics like active inventory and days on market to see if we see this moderation.

 

Right now, the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats doesn’t show the moderation in our market. The median sales price of $350,000 is up 22.9% from last April and 2.7% from the previous month. There were 41.3% of the closings over list price up from 39.5% the previous month. Our buyer demand is still very strong.

 

The median days on the market is 13 days down from 14 days the previous two months. The properties are still selling very quickly.

 

The active inventory is 3,432 homes which is 24.3% less than last April. There was a slight increase (3.7%) from the previous month. The months supply of inventory is 1.2 months which is down 9.6% from last April but up from 1.0 months in March. We will have to see whether the slight increase in inventory is a change in the market or sellers just pricing their homes over market price causing them to sit on the market a little longer.

 

There are many issues that could affect the real estate market. The rapid rise in mortgage interest rates, inflation, and the continuing supply chain issues could be three of the biggest. Housing prices and wage increases due to the shortage of workers seem to be major factors causing inflation.

 

A recent USA Today article made an interesting point about older workers comprising the largest group of Americans that stopped working during COVID. Many retired early but with the runaway inflation, financial pressures, and an abating pandemic many of them are returning to the labor force. Pew Research believes 1.5 million of the 3.5 million baby boomers who retired during the pandemic did so sooner than intended. The Fed puts the figure at 2.4 million. These workers may help some with the worker shortages.

 

I will continue to watch for changes in our market but if you are considering selling, it is a very good time to get your home on the market.

 

Enjoy all the great spring activities and the sports going on this time of year. If we can assist you in any way with real estate advice, please let us know.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

April 25, 2022

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“A true friend is someone who thinks you’re a good egg, even if you’re cracked.” — Unknown

I hope everyone had a wonderful Easter! It is an amazing time of year.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for March 2022 show a continuing seller’s market with low available inventory and prices continuing to rise. The buyer demand remains strong.

 

The median sales price for March is $340,600 for all property types in all 6 counties of Northeast Florida. This is an increase of 3.2% from February and 24.8% from last March. The median price for a single-family home in St. Johns County jumped to $558,700. This compares with $330,000 in Duval, $345,000 in Clay, $222,000 in Putnam and $385,000 in Nassau.

 

The active available inventory for the entire market area is 2,888 properties which is down 8.0% from February and 32.7% from last March. We have 1.0 months supply of inventory which is down 24.3% from last year.

 

We continue to see new listings, but they are selling quickly with multiple offers if priced correctly. We will have to watch the market in April and through the summer to see the impact of rising home mortgage rates on demand.

 

A recent Harris Poll survey conducted for Coldwell Banker of more than 2,000 US adults shows 44% of Gen Z (18-25) and 35% of millennial (26-41) homeowners say they plan to sell their homes in the next 12 months. Many of these first-time homebuyers bought smaller starter homes that have gone up in value and they have enough equity to make a sizeable down payment on a larger home.

 

A Realtor.com housing report says the two primary motivations for selling are new familial needs (31%) and the desire for updated features (15%). The study indicates the majority of sellers planning to make a move are millennials ready to swap their starter homes for larger ones (49%). The study continues “compared to all survey respondents, higher shares of millennials want a more affordable home (34% vs. 21%) and need the sale money as soon as possible (14% vs. 11%) to help offset inflation, student loan debt, and other economic burdens.”

 

Given the projected increase in interest rates and increase in properties available for sale, it would appear to be wise to sell sooner rather than later. Additionally, the current market favors the seller with buyers agreeing in many instances to waive inspections, repairs, and pay cash.

 

If we can help you analyze your home’s value and discuss options, please let us know. We love to talk about real estate. Enjoy our beautiful weather and all the great activities outdoors this spring.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

March 21, 2022

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“Life will always throw you curves, just keep fouling them off. The right pitch will come, and when it does, be prepared to run the bases.” – Rick Maksian

I love all sports, but baseball is my favorite. My heart is happy now that the owners and players have come to an agreement. Go Braves!

 

Even with all that is happening in the world right now, there is a huge demand for real estate in Northeast Florida, unfortunately, the supply is continuing to decline. As a result of the supply shortage and overall inflation, the prices keep going up.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market review for all property types in all 6 counties shows a median sales price of $329,995 which is up 25.3% over last year and 3.6% over last month. In February, 32.5% of the closings were over list price. The median days a property was on the market is 16 days which is down from last year and last month.

 

There were 2,818 new listings; however, there were 2,987 pending sales. We sold more homes in February than came on the market. There is 1.2 months supply of inventory.

 

The Northeast Florida Builders Association reported 1,332 single-family home building permits were issued in February which is an increase of 150 over last year. St. Johns County issued 612, Duval 474, Clay 144 and Nassau 102. The builders continue trying to meet the buyer demand.

 

An interesting article from Florida Realtors says “Nationally, a homeowner who purchased a single-family existing home 10 years ago at the median sales price of $162,600 is likely to have accumulated $229,400 in housing wealth. Of this wealth gain, 86% can be attributed to price appreciation.” Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist is quoted in another article talking about home prices being a great inflation hedge.

 

I hope you are adjusting to Daylight Savings time and get to enjoy some basketball and baseball this spring. Please let us know if we can help you with any real estate needs. We are always happy to share our knowledge and talk about options.

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