Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

January 23, 2023

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“Too many of us are not living our dreams because we are living our fears.” Les Brown

Don’t be fearful of the real estate market, it appears to be stabilizing after the wild ride we have been on.

 

I agree with Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) President, Mark Rosener’s comments on our local real estate market for December. He pointed out that the closed and pending sales, inventory and sales prices have been relatively stable for the last 3 to 4 months.

 

The median sales price of $337,745 is up 4.6% from last year, but down 0.9% from November. All counties had slight decreases in prices month-to-month except St. Johns County which was up 6.2%.

 

There were 2,096 closed sales which is down 35.9% from last year, but up 7.6% from November. Pending sales of 1,782 were down 29.6% from last year and down 1.8% from November.

 

National pending home sales slid for the sixth consecutive month in November, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — fell 4.0% to 73.9 in November. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 37.8%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

 

“The market may be thawing since mortgage rates have fallen for five straight weeks,” Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist. “The average monthly mortgage payment is now almost $200 less than it was several weeks ago when interest rates reached their peak for this year.”

 

Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market posted an unexpected gain in January, rising for the first time in 12 straight months. Economists had predicted a slight decline. Sentiment rose four points to 35 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything below 50 is still considered negative sentiment. The metric stood at 83 in January 2022.

 

All three of the index’s components posted gains in January: current sales conditions rose four points to 40, sales expectations in the next six months increased two points to 37, and buyer traffic rose three points to 23.

 

Most of the builders and Realtors I have spoken with are cautiously optimistic that the fear we have seen about rates and prices, is improving with the stability we are seeing.

 

If we can assist you in any way with a purchase, sale, investment property or rental, please let us know.

 

Happy New Year! Wishing you a prosperous 2023,

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

December 21, 2022

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“Love the giver more than the gift.” – Brigham Young

A quote to live by whether a human giver or our one true holy God.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for November continue to show the median sales price stabilizing. The number of closed sales and pending sales are down, and the active inventory is up slightly. I believe everyone was shocked by the speed of the change in the real estate market.

 

The median sales price is $340,000 for November which is down 4.2% from the previous month and up 5.3% from the previous year. The uncertainty and volatility in housing market metrics have economists and forecasters predicting divergent outcomes for the 2023 national housing market.

 

· Redfin Corp predicts home prices will fall 4%.

· Zillow Group Inc. predicts home prices to remain flat.

· Realtor.com predicts home prices to appreciate 5.4%.

· Lawrence Yun, chief economist National Association of Realtors predicts prices to increase 1%.

· Fannie Mae is predicting prices to fall 1.5%.

· Capital Economics is predicting a fall of 8%.

· Wells Fargo & Co. is predicting a 5.5% decline.

 

I think everyone agrees in some areas prices will increase and others decrease, but it doesn’t look like the gloom and doom headlines we are seeing.

 

All the predictions I have seen are for fewer transactions in 2023. Realtor.com is predicting the Jacksonville MSA to have 3% fewer sales in 2023, but prices will increase 4.6%.

 

The active inventory is 7,019 which is up 1.3% from the previous month. The months supply of inventory is 3.8 months which is up 32% from 2.8 months in October. It appears many buyers and sellers are staying put right now.

 

Soaring rents have forced millions of millennials to move back in with their parents. A recent survey by Pollfish of 1,200 people estimated one in four millennials are living with their parents. That’s equivalent to about 18 million people between the ages of 26 and 41. Some economists are predicting a great looming demand as household formation will rise and there are not enough housing units at affordable prices.

 

As we enter 2023, we will see which predictions are the closest. Please let us know if you are considering an investment property or need to buy, sell, or rent. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

November 22, 2022

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“Reflect upon your present blessings—of which every man has many—not on your past misfortunes, of which all men have some.” —Charles Dickens

Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday; I love to reflect upon my blessings.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market stats for October continue to show the median sales price stabilizing. Since April, the median price has gone slightly above or below $350,000 each month and ended at $355,000 for October.

 

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun recently spoke at the NAR conference and said “For most parts of the country, home price are holding steady since available inventory is extremely low. Some places are experiencing price gains, while some places, most notably in California, are seeing prices pull back.”

 

Yun mentioned the difference between current market conditions and the Great Recession. “Housing inventory is about a quarter of what it was in 2008. Distressed property sales are almost non-existent, at just 2%, and nowhere near the 30% mark seen during the housing crash. Short sales are almost impossible because of the significant price appreciation of the last two years.”

 

There were 2,344 closed sales in October which is down 27.1% from last year but an increase of 11% from September when Hurricane Ian had some impact. Pending Sales of 1,968 were almost the same as September when we had 2,029 pending sales.

 

Active inventory is at 7,237 properties which is up 18.2% from the 6,125 properties in September. We now have 3.1 months supply of inventory compared to 2.9 months in September. Five to six months of inventory is a balanced market.

 

Lawrence Yun expects home sales to decline by 7% in 2023 with the national median home price increasing by 1%, with some markets experiencing price gains and others price declines.

 

The prices are stabilizing, the closings and pending sales are down, inventory is up but still below pre-pandemic norms. It appears that buyers are continuing to buy homes just not at the frenetic pace we have seen for the last two years.

 

Wishing you and your family a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday!

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

October 18, 2022

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“When I stand before God at the end of my life, I would hope that I would not have a single bit of talent left, and could say, ‘I used everything you gave me’.” Erma Bombeck

 

I had to share one of my favorite quotes.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market stats for September 2022 show home prices declining slightly, closed sales and pending sales declining, days on the market, and active inventory increasing.

 

The median sales price for all property types for NEFAR is $347,995 which is down 2% from $355,000 in August. For single-family homes by county compared to the previous month:

 

Duval – $335,000 down 1.5%

 

Clay – $335,990 down 2.9%

 

St. Johns – $561,495 up 1.2%

 

Putnam – $210,725 down 10.3%

 

Nassau – $408,990 up 0.2%

 

Mark Rosener, NEFAR President said, “I anticipate that the median price will continue to fluctuate month to month in the 3-5% range in either direction for the balance of the year.”

 

Closed sales of 2,032 is down 23.2% from 2,647 closings in August. Pending sales of 2,100 are down 17.1% from 2,533 sales in August. Mark said “Closed and pending unit sales suffered from Hurricane Ian’s impact when the powerful storm interrupted services during the last week of the month, a time when many properties close and/or go under contract. Many of the properties scheduled to close in that last week should shift to close in the first half of October.” The insurance companies will not write policies when a storm is near, and some properties must be reinspected before they will insure.

 

The active inventory increased from 6,015 in August to 6,789 in September, a 12.9% increase. The months supply of inventory increased from 2.3 months of supply to 3.3 months, a 47% increase.

 

In summary, the prices have declined slightly, the closings and sales have decreased, and inventory has increased. Home buyers are more cautious and rising mortgage rates have impacted their purchasing power. The buyers have more homes to choose from and more negotiation room. The sellers have lost a little edge, but the prices are still much higher than they were one or two years ago.

 

It is a great time to buy or sell. Please let us know if we can assist you in any way.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

September 16, 2022

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“Kindness is the language which the deaf can hear and the blind can see.” Mark Twain

 

We continue to see a transition in our local housing market. The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market review for August shows a slight decline in median prices and more time on the market to sell a home.

 

The median sales price of $358,740 is down 1.9% from last month’s price of $365,750. However, we are still up 18.4% over last year. Only 19.1% of properties closed over list price in August compared to 26.2% in July. The buyers have more options and more bargaining power as the market changes.

 

Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist, Mark Zandi predicts the interest rate increases will cause a housing correction, but not a crash. He said the fundamentals remain strong with vacancy rates at all-time lows, mortgage underwriting quality high and most loans are 30-year or 15-year fixed loans.

 

Closed sales in August of 2,522 were flat with closings in July of 2,517. We did see more buyers coming into the market with pending sales of 2,561 an increase of 7.6% over July’s 2,380.

 

Active inventory moved up slightly from 6,716 homes in July to 6,756 in August. We still have 2.7 months supply of inventory the same as July. Five to six months of inventory is a balanced market.

 

The median days on the market went from 24 days in July to 31 days in August. Sellers are having to adjust their mindset and price their home in line with current comparable sales. Many sellers don’t see this at first and must reduce their price to get showings and offers.

 

Many buyers are in a wait-and-see mode and may stay that way until after the mid-term elections, but supply is still very low and the market continues to adjust.

 

We have sold out the sporting clay teams for our Davidson Cares Clay Day on October 20th; however, you can still show your kindness to five local charities by purchasing a raffle ticket at DavidsonCares.com. We have our YETI cooler with adult beverages and a 12-gauge Beretta shotgun. Only 100 tickets are being sold for each. You do not have to be present to win when we draw at the shoot. Thank you to everyone who supports us every year!

 

Football is back and baseball is getting close to the playoffs. It is a great time of the year to live in northeast Florida. If we can assist you with any of your real estate needs, please let us know.

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