Northeast Florida Market Update

February 16, 2023


“When everything seems to be going against you, remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it.”

Henry Ford


In the 2023-2026 Florida and Metro Forecast, Dr. Sean Snaith, the director of the University of Central Florida Institute of Central Forecasting said “The U.S. economy is either in or on the brink of a recession. Because of the forecasted shape of the recession: a gradual decline into recession and 12 or more months in the downturn followed by a gradual climb out of recession, we have dubbed the recession the Pasta Bowl Recession.” If you haven’t heard him speak, take the opportunity. He is very smart and very funny.


A few interesting predictions from the forecast are:


Real Gross State Product will mildly contract during the recession as growth will slow to -1.3% in 2023, turning positive in 2024 and accelerating in 2025 to reach 1.7% by 2026.


The unemployment rate was 2.9% in 2022. The recession will push up the rate to 4.6% in 2023, and to 5.8% in 2024, before easing slightly to 5.4% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026.


Housing starts were 192,294 in 2022 with starts decelerating to 133,829 in 2023 and 134,755 in 2024 before ticking up to 149,920 in 2025 and 152,865 in 2026.


The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market stats for January 2023 show the median sales price is stable, closed sales are down, pending sales are up and inventory is up slightly from last month.


The median sales price of $330,000 is down 2.4% from December and up 3.4% from last January. There were 1,525 closings which is down 30% from last month and 33% from last year. This reflects the last several months of very low buyer demand.


There were 2,248 pending sales in January. This was the most since August of 2022. Nationally, pending sales increased for the first time since May.


“This recent low point in home sales activity is likely over,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are the dominant factor driving home sales, and recent declines in rates are clearly helping to stabilize the market.”


There were 3,451 new listings in January which is 32% higher than the previous month and 19% higher than last year. The active inventory went from 6,231 last month to 6,403. When you read how much inventory has increased, keep in mind how many of the new listings were absorbed. There is plenty of demand and the spring buying season looks to be warming up.


I love this time of year with March Madness coming, Baseball Spring Training starting and the real estate market getting back to a more normal rhythm. If we can help you with any of your real estate needs, please let us know.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

January 23, 2023


“Too many of us are not living our dreams because we are living our fears.” Les Brown

Don’t be fearful of the real estate market, it appears to be stabilizing after the wild ride we have been on.


I agree with Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) President, Mark Rosener’s comments on our local real estate market for December. He pointed out that the closed and pending sales, inventory and sales prices have been relatively stable for the last 3 to 4 months.


The median sales price of $337,745 is up 4.6% from last year, but down 0.9% from November. All counties had slight decreases in prices month-to-month except St. Johns County which was up 6.2%.


There were 2,096 closed sales which is down 35.9% from last year, but up 7.6% from November. Pending sales of 1,782 were down 29.6% from last year and down 1.8% from November.


National pending home sales slid for the sixth consecutive month in November, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — fell 4.0% to 73.9 in November. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 37.8%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.


“The market may be thawing since mortgage rates have fallen for five straight weeks,” Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist. “The average monthly mortgage payment is now almost $200 less than it was several weeks ago when interest rates reached their peak for this year.”


Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market posted an unexpected gain in January, rising for the first time in 12 straight months. Economists had predicted a slight decline. Sentiment rose four points to 35 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything below 50 is still considered negative sentiment. The metric stood at 83 in January 2022.


All three of the index’s components posted gains in January: current sales conditions rose four points to 40, sales expectations in the next six months increased two points to 37, and buyer traffic rose three points to 23.


Most of the builders and Realtors I have spoken with are cautiously optimistic that the fear we have seen about rates and prices, is improving with the stability we are seeing.


If we can assist you in any way with a purchase, sale, investment property or rental, please let us know.


Happy New Year! Wishing you a prosperous 2023,

United to Serve: MasterCraft Builder Group Supports Davidson Cares Clay Day

January 12, 2023


The overwhelming success of Davidson Cares Clay Day is thanks to the hard work of countless individuals and organizations. However, MasterCraft Builder Group is truly owed a great deal of gratitude as their Clays for a Cause event was the inspiration for Sherry Davidson, President of Davidson Realty, to start a similar event of her own. 


“MasterCraft’s Clays for a Cause event was so fruitful and brought together an amazing group of people for a great cause. When I decided I wanted to do something similar, I reached out to Chris Shee, Founder and CEO of MasterCraft Builder Group, and he graciously provided me with the insight to create an event that was our own,” shares Sherry. 


“Davidson Cares’ Clay Day is a wonderful day of uniting a community of friends to shoot a round of sporting clays while supporting worthy, local charitable causes. It’s not just about raising money, but also increasing awareness of needs that are right under our nose,” shares Chris Shee. “Our companies both share the same mission of being charitable and our sporting clay shoots are one of the ways we practice this. While the events have their own unique formats, charities, and themes, three things remain the same: love, grace for the needy, and glory to Him.”


Davidson Realty and MasterCraft Builder Group have bonded over their passion for giving back to the community and providing excellent service to their clients. MasterCraft Builder Group is a semi-custom builder and community developer that specializes in thoughtful designs and exceptional quality to meet the needs of the modern family by providing luxury living at an affordable price. MasterCraft Builder Group has homes in RiverTown, TrailMark, SilverLeaf, and Madeira.


Over the past year, these two organizations have supported one another in various ways. In addition to continuing to sponsor Clays for a Cause, Davidson Realty was a major sponsor for MasterCraft’s Concerts for a Cause which benefits Builders Care, an organization that both Sherry and Chris serve on as board members. Davidson Realty also sponsored the 1st Hometown Hero’s Ride, an event that MasterCraft helped organize to benefit Veterans and First Responders. MasterCraft was recently involved with the reconstruction for Port in the Storm, which inspired Davidson Realty to add the organization as one of the Clay Day beneficiaries. 


“Seeing Port in the Storm as one of the beneficiaries of Clay Day this year was really exciting. MasterCraft has supported their organization for several years including doing two almost complete renovations due to emergency disasters. This shelter for struggling or homeless teenagers and young adults provides a safe place to sleep. Helping them is what we are called to do. Port in the Storm is a wonderful mission and the fact that Davidson Cares chose this local cause as part of their 2022 event is just terrific,” continues Chris. 


Davidson Cares Clay Day is proud to have the support and sponsorship from MasterCraft Builder Group as they continue to support local charities. To learn more about MasterCraft Builder Group, visit their website at or call (904) 295-1604.


Davidson Cares Clay Day

The 7th Annual Davidson Cares Clay Day was held on October 20, 2022, at Jacksonville Clay Target Sports. Davidson Cares Clay Day included two-sport shooting events, beginner skeet, and sporting clay. Individuals and teams from beginner to expert levels participated.


In association with the event, there was a raffle contest. Prizes included a 65-quart YETI cooler with 13 full-size liquors and a 12-Gauge Beretta A400 XCEL Sporting shotgun.


Money raised from the event and raffles went directly to Builders Care, St. Augustine Youth Services (SAYS), Investing in Kids (INK!), Port in the Storm Homeless Youth Center, and Hope is Restored.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

December 21, 2022


“Love the giver more than the gift.” – Brigham Young

A quote to live by whether a human giver or our one true holy God.


The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for November continue to show the median sales price stabilizing. The number of closed sales and pending sales are down, and the active inventory is up slightly. I believe everyone was shocked by the speed of the change in the real estate market.


The median sales price is $340,000 for November which is down 4.2% from the previous month and up 5.3% from the previous year. The uncertainty and volatility in housing market metrics have economists and forecasters predicting divergent outcomes for the 2023 national housing market.


· Redfin Corp predicts home prices will fall 4%.

· Zillow Group Inc. predicts home prices to remain flat.

· predicts home prices to appreciate 5.4%.

· Lawrence Yun, chief economist National Association of Realtors predicts prices to increase 1%.

· Fannie Mae is predicting prices to fall 1.5%.

· Capital Economics is predicting a fall of 8%.

· Wells Fargo & Co. is predicting a 5.5% decline.


I think everyone agrees in some areas prices will increase and others decrease, but it doesn’t look like the gloom and doom headlines we are seeing.


All the predictions I have seen are for fewer transactions in 2023. is predicting the Jacksonville MSA to have 3% fewer sales in 2023, but prices will increase 4.6%.


The active inventory is 7,019 which is up 1.3% from the previous month. The months supply of inventory is 3.8 months which is up 32% from 2.8 months in October. It appears many buyers and sellers are staying put right now.


Soaring rents have forced millions of millennials to move back in with their parents. A recent survey by Pollfish of 1,200 people estimated one in four millennials are living with their parents. That’s equivalent to about 18 million people between the ages of 26 and 41. Some economists are predicting a great looming demand as household formation will rise and there are not enough housing units at affordable prices.


As we enter 2023, we will see which predictions are the closest. Please let us know if you are considering an investment property or need to buy, sell, or rent. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Cowford Title, Leigh Insurance, and Chris Austin Support Davidson Cares Clay Day

December 19, 2022


Davidson Cares Clay Day is a day to support organizations in Northeast Florida that are making a tremendous impact in the community. For seven years, this annual event has continued to bring together community leaders who are united in making the First Coast a better place for all. With the generous support from sponsors, Davidson Cares Clay Day is able to maximize fundraising efforts to make sizeable impacts on each of the organizations that benefit each year. 


Cowford Title

For the last two years, Cowford Title has been the Davidson Cares Clay Day cart sponsor. Davidson Realty is proud to use Cowford Title services regularly and work with their team closely. “The team at Cowford Title has great hearts. They love to support the community, specifically foster children and other worthy local causes,” shares Sherry Davidson, President of Davidson Realty. Cowford Title is people focused and, like Davidson Realty, values relationships. “Cowford Title decided to continue to be the cart sponsor for Clay Day because Davidson Realty has been such a constant advocate for Builders Care over the years. Cowford Title is proud to support entities, like Davidson Cares, which has a long-standing record of giving back to our local community and supporting non-profit entities like Builders Care,” shares Chad Dean, President of Cowford Title.


Leigh Insurance 

In addition to the sport shooting event during Davidson Cares Clay Day, a popular and exciting element is the raffle items. This year, Leigh Insurance generously sponsored the gun raffle and cigar table. This raffle item was a new addition this year, but one that caught the eye of participants and those interested in supporting the event. Leigh Insurance also provided each shooter with a quality cigar which made the event extra special. “Clay Day is a fun day that we look forward to each fall and a great opportunity to give back to the community. Leigh Insurance enjoys being a sponsor knowing the contributions are going to organizations doing incredible work. We are honored to participate and be a sponsor for Davidson Cares Clay Day each year,” shares Sally Jaudon, Business Manager at Leigh Insurance Agency. 


Chris Austin

Many of the Davidson Cares Clay Day sponsors have truly become an extension of the Davidson Realty family, and Chris Austin of First Coast Mortgage Funding is no exception. “Chris Austin is a lender our team works with very closely. Chris has an office in our building and participates in many of our team activities like lunch and learns, pizza and personal notes, birthday celebrations, and our trivia night. Chris also recently joined our team in our ramp build with Builders Care,” shares Davidson. Chris Austin graciously sponsored the wonderful lunch for Clay Day and assisted with set up for the event. “Being able to sponsor the lunch for Clay Day was the least I could do to help the great charities Davidson Cares continues to support. To be a part of an event like this one that at the end of the day gives so much money to organizations that will help the people who need it most is an honor and a privilege,” share Chris Austin. 


Davidson Cares Clay Day

The 7th Annual Davidson Cares Clay Day was held on October 20, 2022, at Jacksonville Clay Target Sports. Davidson Cares Clay Day included two-sport shooting events, beginner skeet, and sporting clay. Individuals and teams from beginner to expert levels participated.


In association with the event, there was a raffle contest. Prizes included a 65-quart YETI cooler with 13 full-size liquors and a 12-Gauge Beretta A400 XCEL Sporting shotgun.


Money raised from the event and raffles went directly to Builders Care, St. Augustine Youth Services (SAYS), Investing in Kids (INK!), Port in the Storm Homeless Youth Center, and Hope is Restored.

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