Davidson Realty, Inc.

Real Estate Market Update

August 23, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Your reputation is what people say about you. Your character is what God knows about you.” Bobby Bowden

 

Whether an FSU fan or not, most people respect and love Bobby Bowden.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for July have a few interesting twists. Prices continue to rise, pending and closed sales are down compared to July 2020, and new listings are up.

 

New listings of 3,915 are up 6.9% month over month and 5.3% year to date. The inventory of homes for sale of 4,668 is up slightly from the June number of 4,586. It is still down 40.6% from last July. The months supply of inventory is at 1.4 months which is the same as June but down 50% from last July. Since 5 to 6 months supply of inventory is a balanced market, we are still in a seller’s market.

 

There were 3,287 pending sales in July down 10.6% from last July. However, pending sales are up 13.4% year-to-date. There were 3,149 closings in July down 16.2% from last July but we are up 16.7% year-to-date. The month-to-month comparisons are difficult to interpret because last June and July were the two highest months for sales last year and July was the highest month for closings as a result of the slowdown in April and May 2020 due to Covid.

 

NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun is predicting interest rates to increase to 3.3% by the end of the year on 30-year fixed rate mortgages and average 3.6% in 2022. He predicts existing-home sales will decline marginally from 6 million in 2021 to 5.99 million in 2022.

 

Dr. Yun also predicts housing starts will improve to 1.65 million in 2022 from 1.565 in 2021 and existing-home prices will increase at a slower pace of 4.4% in 2022 compared to 14.1% in 2021.

 

The July median sales price is $303,600 up 15% month-over-month and 13.7% year-to-date. The average sales price is $381,499 up 18.4% month-over-month and 18.6% year-to-date. An amazing 45.6% of listings sold for an amount over list price.

 

It does appear the speed of the market is slowing a little and there may be more opportunities for first-time homebuyers and buyers using FHA or VA loans. Sellers were seeing so many cash offers and conventional loans, that many didn’t want to accept government backed loans because of their inflexibility. The market calming down a little will be good for everyone.

 

Please take a minute to go to DavidsonCares.com and sign up for Clay Day on October 21st or buy a ticket to one of our raffles. We have our YETI cooler full of alcoholic beverages and tickets for 8 people at Concerts for a Cause which is an amazing event watching live music outside.

 

Have a great Labor Day holiday and enjoy the rest of your summer. Please let us know if we can help you with any real estate questions.

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Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

June 18, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Dad: A son’s first hero, a daughter’s first love.” —Unknown

 

I want to wish a Happy Father’s Day to every Dad because you are incredibly special.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats show that new listings of 3,785 are up 12.7% over last May and we are up 1.9% year-to-date. The Northeast Florida Builders Association shows building permits through April of 5,170 permits which is a 45% increase over the same period last year.

 

While new listings and new construction is great news, the inventory of available homes continues to fall. There were 3,847 homes available for sale in May compared to 9,147 last May for a 57.9% reduction. There is 1.1 months supply of inventory available. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months of inventory.

 

The reason inventory continues to fall is the increased demand. There were 3,672 pending sales in May which is up 18.5% over last May. Pending sales are up 25.5% over the same period year-to-date. The 3,276 closed sales are up 37.2% over last May and 25.0% over same period year-to-date.

 

The median sales price of $290,000 is up 16.9% over last May and the average sales price of $363,044 is up 26.1% over last May. A staggering 41% of homes closed in May sold over their list price.

 

The median sales price in May by county:

Baker $264,900

Clay $277,500

Duval $260,000

Nassau $344,893

Putnam $156,000

St. Johns $415,000

 

Many of the builders are limiting their sales currently due to supply and labor issues. While we keep hearing about lumber shortages, the National Association of Home Builders reports that appliances are the biggest issue with lumber a very close second. A key reason for the appliance shortage is the computer chips, which most now require.

 

The market still favors sellers; however, with some persistence, many buyers are successfully getting the home they want under contract. If we can help you with a purchase or a sale of your home, please let us know.

 

Please save the date for our Davidson Cares Clay Day 2021. Our event is October 21, 2021 at Jacksonville Clay Target Sports.

 

Happy Father’s Day!

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Real Estate Market Update

May 20, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“You just can’t beat the person who never gives up.” Babe Ruth

 

If you want to buy a home in today’s market, you should listen to Babe Ruth. Most buyers are having to be persistent and make offers on several homes before they get a home under contract.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for April continue to show high demand for homes and limited supply which is causing price increases.

 

There were 3,615 pending sales in April which is up 52% over last April; however last April COVID was a factor in less contracts being written. The year-to-date numbers for pending sales are up 27% so you can see there is increased demand in the four-month period.

 

There were 3,177 closed sales in April which is a 27% increase month-over-month and 20% year-to-date.

 

The median sales price is $284,941 which is up 14% over last month and 12.5% year-to-date. The average sales price is $357,438 which is up 20.5% over last month and 18% year-to-date.

 

The most staggering statistic to me was the percent of properties sold over list price. For the properties that closed in April, 36.9% sold over list price. That is a 142.8% increase over April 2020. The average for the previous 12 months was 13.3% selling over list price.

 

On the supply side, there were 3,991 available homes for sale at the end of April which is down 58% from last April and there are 1.2 months supply of homes for sale. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months.

 

There may be better news coming to help with supply. A survey by Realtor.com indicated more sellers plan to put their homes on the market. Another survey by NerdWallet of 2,127 homeowners shows 1 in 6 (17%) plans on selling their home in the next 18 months. In fact, 45% of those planning to sell say higher asking prices and lower inventory have caused them to sell earlier than initially planned.

 

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicts an increase in the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate to an average of 3.2% in 2021. “As mortgage rates increase, the frenzied multiple-offer situation will become less prevalent by year’s end, as affordability challenges squeeze out some buyers and more inventory reaches the market,” Yun predicts.

 

“With more inventory and some easing in demand, home prices are expected to shift to mid-single-digit appreciation by the fourth quarter and in 2022,” Yun says. He predicts that:

· Median existing-home sales price will increase 7% in 2021

· Existing-home sales will grow by 10% as more homes reach the market

· New home sales will increase by 20%

 

These predictions are great news. In the meantime, if you are interested in buying or selling, please contact a Realtor with knowledge of the market. We would love to help you navigate these interesting times.

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REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

April 23, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“God could not be everywhere, and therefore he made mothers.” Rudyard Kipling

 

I wish every mother a Happy Mother’s Day!

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for March shows 3,782 homes available for sale compared to 9,484 last March, a 60% reduction. It appears the low supply of homes for sale, high buyer demand and rising prices will be with us for several years.

 

The single-family home for sale inventory peaked in 2007 with about 3.7 million homes available nationally and has been dropping since then to 1.07 million homes currently.

 

A great article from The Mecklenburg Times cites the reason for continued buyer demand as low household formation rates following the Great Recession. If the historical household formation rate had continued after the recession, there would have been 5.7 million more households formed.

 

“The mid-2000s financial collapse began a domino effect. Roughly $6 trillion in real estate equity vanished during the housing crash, impacting the ability of many families to pass down wealth to their children. Young people who finished school around the late 2000s faced a soft job market, which can have long-lasting effects on a person’s finances and their ability to start a new household. Previous Zillow research has shown it takes about six years for homeownership rates of those who graduated college during a recession to catch up with those who graduated during better economic times.”

 

The last two years had shown that when the economy is good and most Americans have access to decent jobs, more of them are able to find a home of their own. More Millennials are turning 33 which has been the age most are marrying and starting families. This trend should continue rising for the next three to four years. Add to this the retiring Baby Boomers who are downsizing and the COVID-related moves where people can work from anywhere. The demand should continue for several more years at least.

 

The supply is tight and the demand is strong, so prices are rising. The median sales price is $274,900 up 12.7% over last March. The average sales price is $344,643, up 20.4%. Many buyers are offering to pay more than list price to get the offer accepted among multiple offers. The percent of properties sold over list price spiked 102.1%. In March 2020 14.2% of properties sold over list price and in March 2021 28.7% paid over list price.

 

It is a seller’s market, so if you are considering selling, we are happy to assist you. If you are interested in buying, we are finding ways to get offers accepted. Thank you for your continued trust and please let us know if we can help in any way. Happy Mother’s Day!

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Real Estate Market Update

March 19, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Four things for success: work and pray, think and believe.” Norman Vincent Peale

 

As we roll into the spring real estate market, there is more demand and less supply of homes than I have ever seen including the 2004 to 2006 timeframe. The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats tell the story.

 

The pending sales of 3,063 are 11.4% higher than last February. The closed sales of 2,542 are up 5.9%. The new listings for February of 2,955 are down 13.5%.

 

There are 3,931 homes available for sale in February, down 56.1% from the 8,945 homes last February. The months supply of inventory is 1.3 months, down 60.6% from 3.3 months last February.

 

With the increased demand and diminishing supply, the prices continue to rise. The average sales price is up 14.1% in February compared to last February and the median price is up 11.8%. A recent article in the Jacksonville Business Journal says Redfin reports that Jacksonville leads the nation in rising housing market value. “The study from Seattle-based online real estate brokerage Redfin Corp. pointed to a 21.1% increase in the total value of homes in the Jacksonville metro between February 2020 and February 2021 – the largest increase in the nation.” They also pointed out that houses in our area remain below the national median price. “The median price here of $270,477 compared to $342,326 for the entire country.”

 

Florida Realtors Chief Economist, Dr. Brad O’Connor is predicting all of 2021 to be a great real estate market in Florida. He quoted economist from Realtors, Builders, Mortgage Bankers, Core Logic and more all predicting interest rates at year end between 3% and 3.6%. He says if rates rise too quickly the demand would be strong but we might be closer to historical norms than the market we are seeing now.

 

We are seeing fewer new listings as mentioned above. This may be related to COVID fears or concerns of where you can buy if you sell your home at a great price. The builders are adding homes as quickly as possible. The building permits issued for the Jacksonville MSA for January and February 2021 were 2,393 compared to 1,723 for the same period in 2020 for a 39% increase.

 

If you are buying or selling, you need advice from a trusted agent. The professional agents are finding ways to get offers accepted for buyers and know the best way to handle multiple offers for sellers. Please let us know if we can be of service.

 

Enjoy our beautiful spring weather, March Madness, Baseball Spring Training, our beaches and river. I wish you a Happy Easter!

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