Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

December 16, 2021

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“God goes to those who have time to hear him—and so on this cloudless night he went to simple shepherds.” Max Lucado

 

 

At this holiday season, the Northeast Florida real estate market is still looking bright. The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market statistics show continued price increases and decreasing availability of homes.

 

The median sales price in November 2021 is $325,000 for all property types in all 6 counties. This is a 23.6% increase year over year and 4.8% higher than October 2021. In St. Johns County the median price is $450,000 for a 26.8% increase year over year. All predictions I have seen are for price increases to slow to single-digit increases next year.

 

There are 3,915 properties available in November 2021 which is down 31.4% year over year and down 14.7% from last month. There is 1.3 months supply of inventory which is down 33.9% year over year and 7.2% from last month. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months of supply.

 

Of the closings in November, 28.8% closed over list price. This number peaked at 40.6% of properties in July and has been dropping, but there was a slight increase from 28.3% last month.

 

There are many opinions on mortgage interest rates since the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday they will be shrinking their monthly bond purchases at twice the rate previously announced and forecasting to raise interest rates three times next year.

 

Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Forecasting at the National Association of Realtors said, “When inflation rises, lenders ask for higher interest rates as compensation for the decrease in purchasing power. Thus, if inflation remains elevated for a longer period, that will drive up mortgage rates.” She expects rates to rise to 3.5% next year. I have seen others predict 3.6% to 3.7%.

 

The supply of homes is expected to increase slightly in 2022; however, the demand should remain strong. More than 45 million millennials will be prime homebuying age, between 26 and 35, entering 2022 plus downsizing baby boomers and Generation Z buyers. We will have to see what effect rising mortgage rates has on demand.

 

For now, inventory remains low, demand is high and prices keep creeping higher. Please let us know if there is anything real estate-related we can help you with.

 

Happy Holidays and New Year! Thank you so much for your support and referrals during 2021.

Pros and Cons: New Construction vs. Resale

July 2, 2021

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Owning a home is likely more difficult now than ever before. With the slim inventory of homes for sale, homes are FLYING off the market. From the rise in home prices to competitive bidding wars, homeowners have to wonder: is it worth just buying new construction?

 

“This question is tough to answer these days. The inventory is slim and prices have gone up on both sides. For most buyers, timeline is the key decision driver when choosing between new construction or an existing home,” shares Davidson Realty agent Shelley Nemethy.

 

 

Pros of Building New Construction 

  • Newness – When buying new construction, you’ll be the first to call this house HOME! Buyers buying new homes enjoy the peace of mind of having a warranty through the builder and fewer renovations.
  • Design – New construction homes also often feature more modern architecture and floorplans. You’ll find more open floor plans, additional bathrooms and spaces that can adapt to the needs of your family. New homes will leave you and your family only to make minor modifications, if any, to feel at home.

 

Cons of Building New Construction

  • Supply Shortages – Due to the Covid pandemic, many industries have experienced limited supply, delays, and labor restrictions. This has trickled down to impact home building as the cost of lumber, metal and other supplies have been affected by the pandemic. In turn, the decreased supply has increased cost which of course is passed along to the homebuyer.
  • Longer Timeline – With a new home build, homebuyers usually have to wait months to get into a new home. With the current shortage of supplies, there is an even greater risk of delays. Some homebuilders limit the number of lots available for sale in an effort to keep on schedule. “If you have time to build, you have more time to save money for closing costs,” shares Davidson Realty agent, Terri Apodaca.

 

Pros of Buying Resale

  • Shorter Timeline – When buying a resale, the closing day is often negotiated in the offer. Typically, new home owners gain possession in one to two months after their offer is accepted.
  • Character – Existing homes generally have more traditional layouts and features that elevate the home. These charming touches provide a unique dimension to an existing home.
  • Location – “Older homes are often in areas more convenient to metro areas and in more established neighborhoods with more development surrounding. Yards are typically more spacious with mature landscaping. Buyers also won’t have to worry about the congestion of construction taking place,” shares Apodaca.

 

Cons of Buying Resale

  • Competitive Market – With so few homes for sale, most homes are receiving multiple offers. Prospective home buyers have to be patient, persistent, and ready to make their best offer quickly to achieve their dream of owning a home.
  • Increasing Home Prices – As a side effect of the low supply and high demand for homes, home prices have skyrocketed making it harder to afford a home that would normally be in reach.
  • Home Improvements – Often buying a resale comes with a few compromises. Upgrades, remodels, and projects could be on your to do list after closing to make your new home the home of your dreams.

 

If you are interested in buying or selling in Northeast Florida, trust the real estate experts at Davidson Realty. Davidson Realty has more than 30 years of experience and has built strong relationships with many of Northeast Florida’s leading home builders. This advantage along with their extensive experience buying and selling resale homes, make them the perfect partners to help you navigate the real estate market. For more information, contact Davidson Realty at (904) 940-5000.

 

The Real Estate Market: How Long Will This Go On?

June 28, 2021

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The story of the real estate market has kept most real estate professionals and home buyers and sellers on the edge of their seats. With such unprecedented and unpredictable times, the biggest cliffhanger is: How long will the real estate market stay like this? 

 

There is no doubt that the real estate market has remained strong for longer than most predicted. “I believe the housing market could remain strong for a while longer. Currently, there is only a 1.1 months supply of homes available in our area. When a balanced market is between 5 to 6 months of inventory, it is clear that demand is still very strong for homes in Northeast Florida,” shares Sherry Davidson, President of Davidson Realty. Additionally, home builders have been building fewer new construction homes since the Great Recession which equates to 4 to 5.5 million fewer homes built, based on historical averages. 

 

As the market has continued to stay strong, more people are getting more “comfortable” with the current real estate market conditions. “Three different surveys indicate more sellers plan to put their homes on the market. This, coupled with homebuilders increasing the pace of new construction, will help increase the supply of homes for sale,” shares Davidson. “Interest rates may rise slightly which may slow demand. I predict we will see more normality in the real estate market by the end of this year or 2022,” Davidson continues. 

 

Because of the increased demand, home prices have been on the rise! “We have been seeing double-digit price increases during this time in the real estate market,” shares Davidson. The National Association of Realtors Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, predicts we will see median existing-home sales prices increase more than 7% in 2021. 

 

With the increase in home prices, those who have taken advantage of this seller’s market are finding it difficult to buy a new home. While some secured a home prior to selling, many are seeking rental homes or staying with family to buy some time. “If you want to avoid the multiple offer situation and frantic pace of the market, we may see less craziness as we get more inventory. Regardless, now more than ever before you need a real estate professional to help you navigate the market,” shares Davidson. 

 

This time in the real estate market will likely be a period that will go down in history as a story full of twists and turns. If you or someone you know is interested in buying or selling their home, contact the Northeast Florida real estate experts at Davidson Realty today at (904) 940-5000. 

 

 

Real Estate Market Update

May 20, 2021

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“You just can’t beat the person who never gives up.” Babe Ruth

 

If you want to buy a home in today’s market, you should listen to Babe Ruth. Most buyers are having to be persistent and make offers on several homes before they get a home under contract.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for April continue to show high demand for homes and limited supply which is causing price increases.

 

There were 3,615 pending sales in April which is up 52% over last April; however last April COVID was a factor in less contracts being written. The year-to-date numbers for pending sales are up 27% so you can see there is increased demand in the four-month period.

 

There were 3,177 closed sales in April which is a 27% increase month-over-month and 20% year-to-date.

 

The median sales price is $284,941 which is up 14% over last month and 12.5% year-to-date. The average sales price is $357,438 which is up 20.5% over last month and 18% year-to-date.

 

The most staggering statistic to me was the percent of properties sold over list price. For the properties that closed in April, 36.9% sold over list price. That is a 142.8% increase over April 2020. The average for the previous 12 months was 13.3% selling over list price.

 

On the supply side, there were 3,991 available homes for sale at the end of April which is down 58% from last April and there are 1.2 months supply of homes for sale. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months.

 

There may be better news coming to help with supply. A survey by Realtor.com indicated more sellers plan to put their homes on the market. Another survey by NerdWallet of 2,127 homeowners shows 1 in 6 (17%) plans on selling their home in the next 18 months. In fact, 45% of those planning to sell say higher asking prices and lower inventory have caused them to sell earlier than initially planned.

 

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicts an increase in the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate to an average of 3.2% in 2021. “As mortgage rates increase, the frenzied multiple-offer situation will become less prevalent by year’s end, as affordability challenges squeeze out some buyers and more inventory reaches the market,” Yun predicts.

 

“With more inventory and some easing in demand, home prices are expected to shift to mid-single-digit appreciation by the fourth quarter and in 2022,” Yun says. He predicts that:

· Median existing-home sales price will increase 7% in 2021

· Existing-home sales will grow by 10% as more homes reach the market

· New home sales will increase by 20%

 

These predictions are great news. In the meantime, if you are interested in buying or selling, please contact a Realtor with knowledge of the market. We would love to help you navigate these interesting times.

REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

April 23, 2021

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“God could not be everywhere, and therefore he made mothers.” Rudyard Kipling

 

I wish every mother a Happy Mother’s Day!

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for March shows 3,782 homes available for sale compared to 9,484 last March, a 60% reduction. It appears the low supply of homes for sale, high buyer demand and rising prices will be with us for several years.

 

The single-family home for sale inventory peaked in 2007 with about 3.7 million homes available nationally and has been dropping since then to 1.07 million homes currently.

 

A great article from The Mecklenburg Times cites the reason for continued buyer demand as low household formation rates following the Great Recession. If the historical household formation rate had continued after the recession, there would have been 5.7 million more households formed.

 

“The mid-2000s financial collapse began a domino effect. Roughly $6 trillion in real estate equity vanished during the housing crash, impacting the ability of many families to pass down wealth to their children. Young people who finished school around the late 2000s faced a soft job market, which can have long-lasting effects on a person’s finances and their ability to start a new household. Previous Zillow research has shown it takes about six years for homeownership rates of those who graduated college during a recession to catch up with those who graduated during better economic times.”

 

The last two years had shown that when the economy is good and most Americans have access to decent jobs, more of them are able to find a home of their own. More Millennials are turning 33 which has been the age most are marrying and starting families. This trend should continue rising for the next three to four years. Add to this the retiring Baby Boomers who are downsizing and the COVID-related moves where people can work from anywhere. The demand should continue for several more years at least.

 

The supply is tight and the demand is strong, so prices are rising. The median sales price is $274,900 up 12.7% over last March. The average sales price is $344,643, up 20.4%. Many buyers are offering to pay more than list price to get the offer accepted among multiple offers. The percent of properties sold over list price spiked 102.1%. In March 2020 14.2% of properties sold over list price and in March 2021 28.7% paid over list price.

 

It is a seller’s market, so if you are considering selling, we are happy to assist you. If you are interested in buying, we are finding ways to get offers accepted. Thank you for your continued trust and please let us know if we can help in any way. Happy Mother’s Day!

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