Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

January 23, 2023

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“Too many of us are not living our dreams because we are living our fears.” Les Brown

Don’t be fearful of the real estate market, it appears to be stabilizing after the wild ride we have been on.

 

I agree with Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) President, Mark Rosener’s comments on our local real estate market for December. He pointed out that the closed and pending sales, inventory and sales prices have been relatively stable for the last 3 to 4 months.

 

The median sales price of $337,745 is up 4.6% from last year, but down 0.9% from November. All counties had slight decreases in prices month-to-month except St. Johns County which was up 6.2%.

 

There were 2,096 closed sales which is down 35.9% from last year, but up 7.6% from November. Pending sales of 1,782 were down 29.6% from last year and down 1.8% from November.

 

National pending home sales slid for the sixth consecutive month in November, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — fell 4.0% to 73.9 in November. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 37.8%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

 

“The market may be thawing since mortgage rates have fallen for five straight weeks,” Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist. “The average monthly mortgage payment is now almost $200 less than it was several weeks ago when interest rates reached their peak for this year.”

 

Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market posted an unexpected gain in January, rising for the first time in 12 straight months. Economists had predicted a slight decline. Sentiment rose four points to 35 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything below 50 is still considered negative sentiment. The metric stood at 83 in January 2022.

 

All three of the index’s components posted gains in January: current sales conditions rose four points to 40, sales expectations in the next six months increased two points to 37, and buyer traffic rose three points to 23.

 

Most of the builders and Realtors I have spoken with are cautiously optimistic that the fear we have seen about rates and prices, is improving with the stability we are seeing.

 

If we can assist you in any way with a purchase, sale, investment property or rental, please let us know.

 

Happy New Year! Wishing you a prosperous 2023,

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

December 21, 2022

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“Love the giver more than the gift.” – Brigham Young

A quote to live by whether a human giver or our one true holy God.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for November continue to show the median sales price stabilizing. The number of closed sales and pending sales are down, and the active inventory is up slightly. I believe everyone was shocked by the speed of the change in the real estate market.

 

The median sales price is $340,000 for November which is down 4.2% from the previous month and up 5.3% from the previous year. The uncertainty and volatility in housing market metrics have economists and forecasters predicting divergent outcomes for the 2023 national housing market.

 

· Redfin Corp predicts home prices will fall 4%.

· Zillow Group Inc. predicts home prices to remain flat.

· Realtor.com predicts home prices to appreciate 5.4%.

· Lawrence Yun, chief economist National Association of Realtors predicts prices to increase 1%.

· Fannie Mae is predicting prices to fall 1.5%.

· Capital Economics is predicting a fall of 8%.

· Wells Fargo & Co. is predicting a 5.5% decline.

 

I think everyone agrees in some areas prices will increase and others decrease, but it doesn’t look like the gloom and doom headlines we are seeing.

 

All the predictions I have seen are for fewer transactions in 2023. Realtor.com is predicting the Jacksonville MSA to have 3% fewer sales in 2023, but prices will increase 4.6%.

 

The active inventory is 7,019 which is up 1.3% from the previous month. The months supply of inventory is 3.8 months which is up 32% from 2.8 months in October. It appears many buyers and sellers are staying put right now.

 

Soaring rents have forced millions of millennials to move back in with their parents. A recent survey by Pollfish of 1,200 people estimated one in four millennials are living with their parents. That’s equivalent to about 18 million people between the ages of 26 and 41. Some economists are predicting a great looming demand as household formation will rise and there are not enough housing units at affordable prices.

 

As we enter 2023, we will see which predictions are the closest. Please let us know if you are considering an investment property or need to buy, sell, or rent. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

November 22, 2022

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“Reflect upon your present blessings—of which every man has many—not on your past misfortunes, of which all men have some.” —Charles Dickens

Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday; I love to reflect upon my blessings.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market stats for October continue to show the median sales price stabilizing. Since April, the median price has gone slightly above or below $350,000 each month and ended at $355,000 for October.

 

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun recently spoke at the NAR conference and said “For most parts of the country, home price are holding steady since available inventory is extremely low. Some places are experiencing price gains, while some places, most notably in California, are seeing prices pull back.”

 

Yun mentioned the difference between current market conditions and the Great Recession. “Housing inventory is about a quarter of what it was in 2008. Distressed property sales are almost non-existent, at just 2%, and nowhere near the 30% mark seen during the housing crash. Short sales are almost impossible because of the significant price appreciation of the last two years.”

 

There were 2,344 closed sales in October which is down 27.1% from last year but an increase of 11% from September when Hurricane Ian had some impact. Pending Sales of 1,968 were almost the same as September when we had 2,029 pending sales.

 

Active inventory is at 7,237 properties which is up 18.2% from the 6,125 properties in September. We now have 3.1 months supply of inventory compared to 2.9 months in September. Five to six months of inventory is a balanced market.

 

Lawrence Yun expects home sales to decline by 7% in 2023 with the national median home price increasing by 1%, with some markets experiencing price gains and others price declines.

 

The prices are stabilizing, the closings and pending sales are down, inventory is up but still below pre-pandemic norms. It appears that buyers are continuing to buy homes just not at the frenetic pace we have seen for the last two years.

 

Wishing you and your family a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday!

Real Estate Market Update

August 23, 2021

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“Your reputation is what people say about you. Your character is what God knows about you.” Bobby Bowden

 

Whether an FSU fan or not, most people respect and love Bobby Bowden.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for July have a few interesting twists. Prices continue to rise, pending and closed sales are down compared to July 2020, and new listings are up.

 

New listings of 3,915 are up 6.9% month over month and 5.3% year to date. The inventory of homes for sale of 4,668 is up slightly from the June number of 4,586. It is still down 40.6% from last July. The months supply of inventory is at 1.4 months which is the same as June but down 50% from last July. Since 5 to 6 months supply of inventory is a balanced market, we are still in a seller’s market.

 

There were 3,287 pending sales in July down 10.6% from last July. However, pending sales are up 13.4% year-to-date. There were 3,149 closings in July down 16.2% from last July but we are up 16.7% year-to-date. The month-to-month comparisons are difficult to interpret because last June and July were the two highest months for sales last year and July was the highest month for closings as a result of the slowdown in April and May 2020 due to Covid.

 

NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun is predicting interest rates to increase to 3.3% by the end of the year on 30-year fixed rate mortgages and average 3.6% in 2022. He predicts existing-home sales will decline marginally from 6 million in 2021 to 5.99 million in 2022.

 

Dr. Yun also predicts housing starts will improve to 1.65 million in 2022 from 1.565 in 2021 and existing-home prices will increase at a slower pace of 4.4% in 2022 compared to 14.1% in 2021.

 

The July median sales price is $303,600 up 15% month-over-month and 13.7% year-to-date. The average sales price is $381,499 up 18.4% month-over-month and 18.6% year-to-date. An amazing 45.6% of listings sold for an amount over list price.

 

It does appear the speed of the market is slowing a little and there may be more opportunities for first-time homebuyers and buyers using FHA or VA loans. Sellers were seeing so many cash offers and conventional loans, that many didn’t want to accept government backed loans because of their inflexibility. The market calming down a little will be good for everyone.

 

Please take a minute to go to DavidsonCares.com and sign up for Clay Day on October 21st or buy a ticket to one of our raffles. We have our YETI cooler full of alcoholic beverages and tickets for 8 people at Concerts for a Cause which is an amazing event watching live music outside.

 

Have a great Labor Day holiday and enjoy the rest of your summer. Please let us know if we can help you with any real estate questions.

Davidson Realty