Davidson Realty, Inc.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

February 25, 2022

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“I will love the light for it shows me the way, yet I will endure the darkness because it shows me the stars.” Og Mandino

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market review shows some moderation in median sales price increases since November. The median sales price of $320,000 is still 25% higher than last January. Most economists are predicting 3% to 5% price increases nationally this year.

 

The percentage of closings over list price has also stabilized for a few months at around 30% of closings over list price. We are beginning to see more sellers pricing their homes substantially over market price. Those homes sit on the market longer than the homes priced correctly.

 

The 2,126 closed sales are down 8% from last year and the 2,857 pending sales are down 3%. You may recall that December 2020 and January 2021 had inflated post-COVID lockdown demand. I would like to add that we are seeing new construction closings getting pushed out due to supply constraints and labor shortages. Additionally, low inventory is still holding back many buyers.

 

There is active inventory of 3,105 counting all 9 property types which is down 35.1% from last year. There is active inventory for single-family homes of 2,389 for our entire market including 6 counties.

 

The builders are trying to keep pace with demand. January 2022 had 1,457 permits which set a record for the number of permits issued in a single month. The annual total of permits in 2021 was 16,138 compared to 12,555 in 2020.

 

A recent article from Lawrence Yun with the National Association of Realtors stated “Home sales are at their best in 15 years. Once all the data are tallied up, more than 6 million existing homes and about 800,000 newly constructed homes will have been sold in 2021 – the best performance since 2006.”

 

To sum up, demand is still very strong, supply is very low and prices haven’t been rising as quickly in the last few months.

 

Thank you for all the support and referrals! If you know anyone we can help to sell, buy or rent, please let me know.

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Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

January 26, 2022

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Posted by in News

“I always just thought if you see somebody without a smile, give ‘em yours!” Dolly Parton

 

 

A little Dolly wisdom to get 2022 off to a great start.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors Market Stats shows strong buyer demand, a very low supply of homes available, and prices continuing to rise. The buyer demand is particularly strong as mortgage interest rates have risen slightly and buyers want to lock in lower mortgage rates. The higher interest rates expected will decrease affordability for some buyers going forward.

 

Some great information shared by Bank of England loan officer Alex Stewart at the Sales & Marketing Council last week included some Redfin user search data showing 52% of buyers searching Jacksonville properties were local and 48% were from outside the area. The locals don’t have the perspective of buyers moving here from much more expensive areas.

 

The average price home in Jacksonville is around $358,000 for a 2,500 square foot home. A similar home in Washington DC is approximately $676,000, in New York $3 million and Seattle $807,000. These buyers relocating to our area find the homes very affordable.

 

Job growth is also adding to the demand for homes. The Jacksonville market has recovered more jobs than we lost when COVID caused so much unemployment. As of October 2021, Jacksonville has recovered 112% of jobs compared to the United States recovering 81%.

 

The supply of homes was around 20,000 homes in Northeast Florida in 2007 when the housing market changed. As the market improved, it dropped 52% to around 9,500 homes at the beginning of 2020. In the last 2 years, the supply has dropped an additional 62% to around 3,400 homes available in December 2021. There is a 1.1 month supply of homes available in December way below the 5 to 6 months supply that is considered a balanced market.

 

The median sales price in the Northeast Florida area in December is $323,880 for all property types in all 6 counties. That is an increase of 20.5% over last December. Most sellers got their asking price with 29.1% closing over list price.

 

The Northeast Florida real estate market is very strong. If you are interested in buying, selling, or renting your property, please give us a call for a consultation. Thank you so much for all of your support and referrals in 2021. Happy New Year!

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Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

December 16, 2021

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“God goes to those who have time to hear him—and so on this cloudless night he went to simple shepherds.” Max Lucado

 

 

At this holiday season, the Northeast Florida real estate market is still looking bright. The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market statistics show continued price increases and decreasing availability of homes.

 

The median sales price in November 2021 is $325,000 for all property types in all 6 counties. This is a 23.6% increase year over year and 4.8% higher than October 2021. In St. Johns County the median price is $450,000 for a 26.8% increase year over year. All predictions I have seen are for price increases to slow to single-digit increases next year.

 

There are 3,915 properties available in November 2021 which is down 31.4% year over year and down 14.7% from last month. There is 1.3 months supply of inventory which is down 33.9% year over year and 7.2% from last month. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months of supply.

 

Of the closings in November, 28.8% closed over list price. This number peaked at 40.6% of properties in July and has been dropping, but there was a slight increase from 28.3% last month.

 

There are many opinions on mortgage interest rates since the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday they will be shrinking their monthly bond purchases at twice the rate previously announced and forecasting to raise interest rates three times next year.

 

Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Forecasting at the National Association of Realtors said, “When inflation rises, lenders ask for higher interest rates as compensation for the decrease in purchasing power. Thus, if inflation remains elevated for a longer period, that will drive up mortgage rates.” She expects rates to rise to 3.5% next year. I have seen others predict 3.6% to 3.7%.

 

The supply of homes is expected to increase slightly in 2022; however, the demand should remain strong. More than 45 million millennials will be prime homebuying age, between 26 and 35, entering 2022 plus downsizing baby boomers and Generation Z buyers. We will have to see what effect rising mortgage rates has on demand.

 

For now, inventory remains low, demand is high and prices keep creeping higher. Please let us know if there is anything real estate-related we can help you with.

 

Happy Holidays and New Year! Thank you so much for your support and referrals during 2021.

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Real Estate Market Update

September 22, 2021

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Posted by in News

“Fear does not stop death. It stops life. And worrying does not take away tomorrow’s troubles. It takes away today’s peace.” Unknown

It is easy to agree with the truth of this quote, but much harder to live it.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for August continue to show rising prices, continued high buyer demand, and low inventories of available homes. The most recent trend we are seeing is double-digit rent increases.

 

“Put simply, August trends suggest rents are making up for lost time. Rents remained low during some of the worst months of the pandemic, growing at a sub-2% pace from September 2020 to March 2021, which is also when for-sale home prices were growing by double-digits,” said Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale.

 

Many buyers are unable to find a suitable home to purchase and have been forced into the rental market. According to Apartment List, rents in Jacksonville have risen 19.7% since August 2020, and 4.4% since July 2021.

 

There were 3,787 new listings in August, up 5.7% from last August and 6.7% year-to-date. The builders are also adding more homes. Industry sources predict an 11% to 12% increase in housing starts for 2021 or about 1.55 million units. That would be up from 1.38 million housing starts in 2020, which was a 7% increase over 2019. (Business Journal article) Builders are still being delayed by materials like windows and appliances and labor shortages.

 

The good news for buyers is that the frenzy of competitiveness of the spring market has cooled a bit. Some sellers are still pricing their homes very high, but many buyers are no longer willing to pay the prices they were during the spring and the homes are sitting or the sellers are reducing the price. While 41.0% of homes sold over list price, that is down from 44.8% in July.

 

There were 3,424 pending sales down 2.0% from last August, but up 12.4% year-to-date. Closed sales of 3,200 were down 3.1% from last August, but up 15.6% year-to-date.

 

The median sales price of $300,000 is up around 14% month-over-month and year-to-date. The average sales price of $362,699 is up 14.2% month-over-month and 17.7% year-to-date.

 

There are 4,651 homes available for sale which is down 37.2% from last August and we have 1.4 months of supply available. Five to six months is a balanced market.

 

While we are seeing more homes come available, the buyer demand remains very strong. We should continue to see prices increase, multiple offers, and increased rental rates.

 

Please come join us on October 21st for our major fundraiser, Davidson Cares Clay Day. We support Builders Care, St. Augustine Youth Services, and Investing in Kids. Go to DavidsonCares.com and register or buy a raffle ticket for one of our great prizes.

 

We appreciate your support and referrals. Please let us know if we can assist you in any way.

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Real Estate Market Update

February 16, 2021

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Posted by in News

“Talent is God given. Be humble. Fame is man-given. Be grateful. Conceit is self-given. Be careful.” John Wooden

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for January 2021 confirms what we are seeing in the market every day. The Inventory of Homes for Sale is 4,296 homes, down 51.6% from last January when there were 8,876. We have 1.4 months supply of inventory which is down 57.6% from 3.3 months last January. These numbers are staggering. The available inventory is lower than in the crazy period of 2004 and 2005.

 

It is the perfect storm if you are considering selling your home. When a new listing comes available buyers are offering list price with escalation clauses to pay more. Some buyers are removing appraisal and inspection contingencies to get their offer accepted. It is a very competitive market and you need expert advice to manage the process.

 

Buyer demand is strong as evidenced by 2,970 pending sales in January up 17.9% from last January. Closed sales of 2,210 is up 11.2%. With strong buyer demand and lower than normal inventory, prices continue to increase. The median sales price in January is $256,995 up 10.8% over last January. The average price is $319,811 up 16.0%.

 

National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) Chief Economist, Dr. Robert Dietz and Florida Realtors Chief Economist, Dr. Brad O’Connor spoke at a recent Florida Realtors event and shared some interesting insights. Dr. Dietz said Florida had strong growth in new construction with 2020 building permits up “an incredible 30% year-over-year.”

 

The NAHB chief economist said he tracked data to look at the often-cited “shift to the suburbs” for housing in the latter part of 2020 due to COVID-19. He found that large metro areas with high density in the urban core still experienced a year-over-year growth rate of about 5.7% in 3Q 2020, but the lower-density, lower-cost suburbs out from the cities reported a growth rate of about 15%. Dietz also looked further out from Florida’s urban cores at communities known for second homes, investment homes or retirement. He said those areas reported a year-over-year growth rate of about 23.2% in 3Q 2020.

 

Dr. O’Connor explained that buyer wealth and available inventory matter more than density. “So, I would hypothesize that’s why you’re seeing a suburban shift in new home sales. And, why you’re seeing an overall greater surge in sales of upper-priced and luxury homes in Florida is that these kinds of homes are more freely available, and because many of the folks who are able to afford these kinds of properties also tend to be those who will be most able to work from home going forward.”

 

The northeast Florida housing market remains strong. It will be interesting to see what happens in the spring which is typically our strongest season. Enjoy the great spring weather and all the sports that are resuming. Thank you for your continued support and please let us know if we can help you with any real estate needs

 

 

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