Davidson Realty, Inc.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

March 21, 2022

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“Life will always throw you curves, just keep fouling them off. The right pitch will come, and when it does, be prepared to run the bases.” – Rick Maksian

I love all sports, but baseball is my favorite. My heart is happy now that the owners and players have come to an agreement. Go Braves!

 

Even with all that is happening in the world right now, there is a huge demand for real estate in Northeast Florida, unfortunately, the supply is continuing to decline. As a result of the supply shortage and overall inflation, the prices keep going up.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market review for all property types in all 6 counties shows a median sales price of $329,995 which is up 25.3% over last year and 3.6% over last month. In February, 32.5% of the closings were over list price. The median days a property was on the market is 16 days which is down from last year and last month.

 

There were 2,818 new listings; however, there were 2,987 pending sales. We sold more homes in February than came on the market. There is 1.2 months supply of inventory.

 

The Northeast Florida Builders Association reported 1,332 single-family home building permits were issued in February which is an increase of 150 over last year. St. Johns County issued 612, Duval 474, Clay 144 and Nassau 102. The builders continue trying to meet the buyer demand.

 

An interesting article from Florida Realtors says “Nationally, a homeowner who purchased a single-family existing home 10 years ago at the median sales price of $162,600 is likely to have accumulated $229,400 in housing wealth. Of this wealth gain, 86% can be attributed to price appreciation.” Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist is quoted in another article talking about home prices being a great inflation hedge.

 

I hope you are adjusting to Daylight Savings time and get to enjoy some basketball and baseball this spring. Please let us know if we can help you with any real estate needs. We are always happy to share our knowledge and talk about options.

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Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

February 25, 2022

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“I will love the light for it shows me the way, yet I will endure the darkness because it shows me the stars.” Og Mandino

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market review shows some moderation in median sales price increases since November. The median sales price of $320,000 is still 25% higher than last January. Most economists are predicting 3% to 5% price increases nationally this year.

 

The percentage of closings over list price has also stabilized for a few months at around 30% of closings over list price. We are beginning to see more sellers pricing their homes substantially over market price. Those homes sit on the market longer than the homes priced correctly.

 

The 2,126 closed sales are down 8% from last year and the 2,857 pending sales are down 3%. You may recall that December 2020 and January 2021 had inflated post-COVID lockdown demand. I would like to add that we are seeing new construction closings getting pushed out due to supply constraints and labor shortages. Additionally, low inventory is still holding back many buyers.

 

There is active inventory of 3,105 counting all 9 property types which is down 35.1% from last year. There is active inventory for single-family homes of 2,389 for our entire market including 6 counties.

 

The builders are trying to keep pace with demand. January 2022 had 1,457 permits which set a record for the number of permits issued in a single month. The annual total of permits in 2021 was 16,138 compared to 12,555 in 2020.

 

A recent article from Lawrence Yun with the National Association of Realtors stated “Home sales are at their best in 15 years. Once all the data are tallied up, more than 6 million existing homes and about 800,000 newly constructed homes will have been sold in 2021 – the best performance since 2006.”

 

To sum up, demand is still very strong, supply is very low and prices haven’t been rising as quickly in the last few months.

 

Thank you for all the support and referrals! If you know anyone we can help to sell, buy or rent, please let me know.

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Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

January 26, 2022

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Posted by in News

“I always just thought if you see somebody without a smile, give ‘em yours!” Dolly Parton

 

 

A little Dolly wisdom to get 2022 off to a great start.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors Market Stats shows strong buyer demand, a very low supply of homes available, and prices continuing to rise. The buyer demand is particularly strong as mortgage interest rates have risen slightly and buyers want to lock in lower mortgage rates. The higher interest rates expected will decrease affordability for some buyers going forward.

 

Some great information shared by Bank of England loan officer Alex Stewart at the Sales & Marketing Council last week included some Redfin user search data showing 52% of buyers searching Jacksonville properties were local and 48% were from outside the area. The locals don’t have the perspective of buyers moving here from much more expensive areas.

 

The average price home in Jacksonville is around $358,000 for a 2,500 square foot home. A similar home in Washington DC is approximately $676,000, in New York $3 million and Seattle $807,000. These buyers relocating to our area find the homes very affordable.

 

Job growth is also adding to the demand for homes. The Jacksonville market has recovered more jobs than we lost when COVID caused so much unemployment. As of October 2021, Jacksonville has recovered 112% of jobs compared to the United States recovering 81%.

 

The supply of homes was around 20,000 homes in Northeast Florida in 2007 when the housing market changed. As the market improved, it dropped 52% to around 9,500 homes at the beginning of 2020. In the last 2 years, the supply has dropped an additional 62% to around 3,400 homes available in December 2021. There is a 1.1 month supply of homes available in December way below the 5 to 6 months supply that is considered a balanced market.

 

The median sales price in the Northeast Florida area in December is $323,880 for all property types in all 6 counties. That is an increase of 20.5% over last December. Most sellers got their asking price with 29.1% closing over list price.

 

The Northeast Florida real estate market is very strong. If you are interested in buying, selling, or renting your property, please give us a call for a consultation. Thank you so much for all of your support and referrals in 2021. Happy New Year!

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Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

December 16, 2021

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“God goes to those who have time to hear him—and so on this cloudless night he went to simple shepherds.” Max Lucado

 

 

At this holiday season, the Northeast Florida real estate market is still looking bright. The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market statistics show continued price increases and decreasing availability of homes.

 

The median sales price in November 2021 is $325,000 for all property types in all 6 counties. This is a 23.6% increase year over year and 4.8% higher than October 2021. In St. Johns County the median price is $450,000 for a 26.8% increase year over year. All predictions I have seen are for price increases to slow to single-digit increases next year.

 

There are 3,915 properties available in November 2021 which is down 31.4% year over year and down 14.7% from last month. There is 1.3 months supply of inventory which is down 33.9% year over year and 7.2% from last month. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months of supply.

 

Of the closings in November, 28.8% closed over list price. This number peaked at 40.6% of properties in July and has been dropping, but there was a slight increase from 28.3% last month.

 

There are many opinions on mortgage interest rates since the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday they will be shrinking their monthly bond purchases at twice the rate previously announced and forecasting to raise interest rates three times next year.

 

Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Forecasting at the National Association of Realtors said, “When inflation rises, lenders ask for higher interest rates as compensation for the decrease in purchasing power. Thus, if inflation remains elevated for a longer period, that will drive up mortgage rates.” She expects rates to rise to 3.5% next year. I have seen others predict 3.6% to 3.7%.

 

The supply of homes is expected to increase slightly in 2022; however, the demand should remain strong. More than 45 million millennials will be prime homebuying age, between 26 and 35, entering 2022 plus downsizing baby boomers and Generation Z buyers. We will have to see what effect rising mortgage rates has on demand.

 

For now, inventory remains low, demand is high and prices keep creeping higher. Please let us know if there is anything real estate-related we can help you with.

 

Happy Holidays and New Year! Thank you so much for your support and referrals during 2021.

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Real Estate Market Update

August 23, 2021

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“Your reputation is what people say about you. Your character is what God knows about you.” Bobby Bowden

 

Whether an FSU fan or not, most people respect and love Bobby Bowden.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for July have a few interesting twists. Prices continue to rise, pending and closed sales are down compared to July 2020, and new listings are up.

 

New listings of 3,915 are up 6.9% month over month and 5.3% year to date. The inventory of homes for sale of 4,668 is up slightly from the June number of 4,586. It is still down 40.6% from last July. The months supply of inventory is at 1.4 months which is the same as June but down 50% from last July. Since 5 to 6 months supply of inventory is a balanced market, we are still in a seller’s market.

 

There were 3,287 pending sales in July down 10.6% from last July. However, pending sales are up 13.4% year-to-date. There were 3,149 closings in July down 16.2% from last July but we are up 16.7% year-to-date. The month-to-month comparisons are difficult to interpret because last June and July were the two highest months for sales last year and July was the highest month for closings as a result of the slowdown in April and May 2020 due to Covid.

 

NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun is predicting interest rates to increase to 3.3% by the end of the year on 30-year fixed rate mortgages and average 3.6% in 2022. He predicts existing-home sales will decline marginally from 6 million in 2021 to 5.99 million in 2022.

 

Dr. Yun also predicts housing starts will improve to 1.65 million in 2022 from 1.565 in 2021 and existing-home prices will increase at a slower pace of 4.4% in 2022 compared to 14.1% in 2021.

 

The July median sales price is $303,600 up 15% month-over-month and 13.7% year-to-date. The average sales price is $381,499 up 18.4% month-over-month and 18.6% year-to-date. An amazing 45.6% of listings sold for an amount over list price.

 

It does appear the speed of the market is slowing a little and there may be more opportunities for first-time homebuyers and buyers using FHA or VA loans. Sellers were seeing so many cash offers and conventional loans, that many didn’t want to accept government backed loans because of their inflexibility. The market calming down a little will be good for everyone.

 

Please take a minute to go to DavidsonCares.com and sign up for Clay Day on October 21st or buy a ticket to one of our raffles. We have our YETI cooler full of alcoholic beverages and tickets for 8 people at Concerts for a Cause which is an amazing event watching live music outside.

 

Have a great Labor Day holiday and enjoy the rest of your summer. Please let us know if we can help you with any real estate questions.

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