“Too many of us are not living our dreams because we are living our fears.” Les Brown

Don’t be fearful of the real estate market, it appears to be stabilizing after the wild ride we have been on.

I agree with Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) President, Mark Rosener’s comments on our local real estate market for December. He pointed out that the closed and pending sales, inventory and sales prices have been relatively stable for the last 3 to 4 months.

The median sales price of $337,745 is up 4.6% from last year, but down 0.9% from November. All counties had slight decreases in prices month-to-month except St. Johns County which was up 6.2%.

There were 2,096 closed sales which is down 35.9% from last year, but up 7.6% from November. Pending sales of 1,782 were down 29.6% from last year and down 1.8% from November.

National pending home sales slid for the sixth consecutive month in November, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — fell 4.0% to 73.9 in November. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 37.8%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“The market may be thawing since mortgage rates have fallen for five straight weeks,” Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist. “The average monthly mortgage payment is now almost $200 less than it was several weeks ago when interest rates reached their peak for this year.”

Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market posted an unexpected gain in January, rising for the first time in 12 straight months. Economists had predicted a slight decline. Sentiment rose four points to 35 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything below 50 is still considered negative sentiment. The metric stood at 83 in January 2022.

All three of the index’s components posted gains in January: current sales conditions rose four points to 40, sales expectations in the next six months increased two points to 37, and buyer traffic rose three points to 23.

Most of the builders and Realtors I have spoken with are cautiously optimistic that the fear we have seen about rates and prices, is improving with the stability we are seeing.

If we can assist you in any way with a purchase, sale, investment property or rental, please let us know.

Happy New Year! Wishing you a prosperous 2023,

“Love the giver more than the gift.” – Brigham Young

A quote to live by whether a human giver or our one true holy God.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for November continue to show the median sales price stabilizing. The number of closed sales and pending sales are down, and the active inventory is up slightly. I believe everyone was shocked by the speed of the change in the real estate market.

The median sales price is $340,000 for November which is down 4.2% from the previous month and up 5.3% from the previous year. The uncertainty and volatility in housing market metrics have economists and forecasters predicting divergent outcomes for the 2023 national housing market.

· Redfin Corp predicts home prices will fall 4%.

· Zillow Group Inc. predicts home prices to remain flat.

· Realtor.com predicts home prices to appreciate 5.4%.

· Lawrence Yun, chief economist National Association of Realtors predicts prices to increase 1%.

· Fannie Mae is predicting prices to fall 1.5%.

· Capital Economics is predicting a fall of 8%.

· Wells Fargo & Co. is predicting a 5.5% decline.

I think everyone agrees in some areas prices will increase and others decrease, but it doesn’t look like the gloom and doom headlines we are seeing.

All the predictions I have seen are for fewer transactions in 2023. Realtor.com is predicting the Jacksonville MSA to have 3% fewer sales in 2023, but prices will increase 4.6%.

The active inventory is 7,019 which is up 1.3% from the previous month. The months supply of inventory is 3.8 months which is up 32% from 2.8 months in October. It appears many buyers and sellers are staying put right now.

Soaring rents have forced millions of millennials to move back in with their parents. A recent survey by Pollfish of 1,200 people estimated one in four millennials are living with their parents. That’s equivalent to about 18 million people between the ages of 26 and 41. Some economists are predicting a great looming demand as household formation will rise and there are not enough housing units at affordable prices.

As we enter 2023, we will see which predictions are the closest. Please let us know if you are considering an investment property or need to buy, sell, or rent. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!