Davidson Realty, Inc.

Real Estate Market Update

May 20, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“You just can’t beat the person who never gives up.” Babe Ruth

 

If you want to buy a home in today’s market, you should listen to Babe Ruth. Most buyers are having to be persistent and make offers on several homes before they get a home under contract.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for April continue to show high demand for homes and limited supply which is causing price increases.

 

There were 3,615 pending sales in April which is up 52% over last April; however last April COVID was a factor in less contracts being written. The year-to-date numbers for pending sales are up 27% so you can see there is increased demand in the four-month period.

 

There were 3,177 closed sales in April which is a 27% increase month-over-month and 20% year-to-date.

 

The median sales price is $284,941 which is up 14% over last month and 12.5% year-to-date. The average sales price is $357,438 which is up 20.5% over last month and 18% year-to-date.

 

The most staggering statistic to me was the percent of properties sold over list price. For the properties that closed in April, 36.9% sold over list price. That is a 142.8% increase over April 2020. The average for the previous 12 months was 13.3% selling over list price.

 

On the supply side, there were 3,991 available homes for sale at the end of April which is down 58% from last April and there are 1.2 months supply of homes for sale. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months.

 

There may be better news coming to help with supply. A survey by Realtor.com indicated more sellers plan to put their homes on the market. Another survey by NerdWallet of 2,127 homeowners shows 1 in 6 (17%) plans on selling their home in the next 18 months. In fact, 45% of those planning to sell say higher asking prices and lower inventory have caused them to sell earlier than initially planned.

 

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicts an increase in the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate to an average of 3.2% in 2021. “As mortgage rates increase, the frenzied multiple-offer situation will become less prevalent by year’s end, as affordability challenges squeeze out some buyers and more inventory reaches the market,” Yun predicts.

 

“With more inventory and some easing in demand, home prices are expected to shift to mid-single-digit appreciation by the fourth quarter and in 2022,” Yun says. He predicts that:

· Median existing-home sales price will increase 7% in 2021

· Existing-home sales will grow by 10% as more homes reach the market

· New home sales will increase by 20%

 

These predictions are great news. In the meantime, if you are interested in buying or selling, please contact a Realtor with knowledge of the market. We would love to help you navigate these interesting times.

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REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

April 23, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“God could not be everywhere, and therefore he made mothers.” Rudyard Kipling

 

I wish every mother a Happy Mother’s Day!

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for March shows 3,782 homes available for sale compared to 9,484 last March, a 60% reduction. It appears the low supply of homes for sale, high buyer demand and rising prices will be with us for several years.

 

The single-family home for sale inventory peaked in 2007 with about 3.7 million homes available nationally and has been dropping since then to 1.07 million homes currently.

 

A great article from The Mecklenburg Times cites the reason for continued buyer demand as low household formation rates following the Great Recession. If the historical household formation rate had continued after the recession, there would have been 5.7 million more households formed.

 

“The mid-2000s financial collapse began a domino effect. Roughly $6 trillion in real estate equity vanished during the housing crash, impacting the ability of many families to pass down wealth to their children. Young people who finished school around the late 2000s faced a soft job market, which can have long-lasting effects on a person’s finances and their ability to start a new household. Previous Zillow research has shown it takes about six years for homeownership rates of those who graduated college during a recession to catch up with those who graduated during better economic times.”

 

The last two years had shown that when the economy is good and most Americans have access to decent jobs, more of them are able to find a home of their own. More Millennials are turning 33 which has been the age most are marrying and starting families. This trend should continue rising for the next three to four years. Add to this the retiring Baby Boomers who are downsizing and the COVID-related moves where people can work from anywhere. The demand should continue for several more years at least.

 

The supply is tight and the demand is strong, so prices are rising. The median sales price is $274,900 up 12.7% over last March. The average sales price is $344,643, up 20.4%. Many buyers are offering to pay more than list price to get the offer accepted among multiple offers. The percent of properties sold over list price spiked 102.1%. In March 2020 14.2% of properties sold over list price and in March 2021 28.7% paid over list price.

 

It is a seller’s market, so if you are considering selling, we are happy to assist you. If you are interested in buying, we are finding ways to get offers accepted. Thank you for your continued trust and please let us know if we can help in any way. Happy Mother’s Day!

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Real Estate Market Update

March 19, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Four things for success: work and pray, think and believe.” Norman Vincent Peale

 

As we roll into the spring real estate market, there is more demand and less supply of homes than I have ever seen including the 2004 to 2006 timeframe. The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats tell the story.

 

The pending sales of 3,063 are 11.4% higher than last February. The closed sales of 2,542 are up 5.9%. The new listings for February of 2,955 are down 13.5%.

 

There are 3,931 homes available for sale in February, down 56.1% from the 8,945 homes last February. The months supply of inventory is 1.3 months, down 60.6% from 3.3 months last February.

 

With the increased demand and diminishing supply, the prices continue to rise. The average sales price is up 14.1% in February compared to last February and the median price is up 11.8%. A recent article in the Jacksonville Business Journal says Redfin reports that Jacksonville leads the nation in rising housing market value. “The study from Seattle-based online real estate brokerage Redfin Corp. pointed to a 21.1% increase in the total value of homes in the Jacksonville metro between February 2020 and February 2021 – the largest increase in the nation.” They also pointed out that houses in our area remain below the national median price. “The median price here of $270,477 compared to $342,326 for the entire country.”

 

Florida Realtors Chief Economist, Dr. Brad O’Connor is predicting all of 2021 to be a great real estate market in Florida. He quoted economist from Realtors, Builders, Mortgage Bankers, Core Logic and more all predicting interest rates at year end between 3% and 3.6%. He says if rates rise too quickly the demand would be strong but we might be closer to historical norms than the market we are seeing now.

 

We are seeing fewer new listings as mentioned above. This may be related to COVID fears or concerns of where you can buy if you sell your home at a great price. The builders are adding homes as quickly as possible. The building permits issued for the Jacksonville MSA for January and February 2021 were 2,393 compared to 1,723 for the same period in 2020 for a 39% increase.

 

If you are buying or selling, you need advice from a trusted agent. The professional agents are finding ways to get offers accepted for buyers and know the best way to handle multiple offers for sellers. Please let us know if we can be of service.

 

Enjoy our beautiful spring weather, March Madness, Baseball Spring Training, our beaches and river. I wish you a Happy Easter!

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Real Estate Market Update

September 17, 2020

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little.”

Edmund Burke

 

The big real estate story across the nation and locally is the shortage of available homes for sale. There were 6,403 homes for sale at the end of August according to the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market stats. That is 35% less than August 2019 number of 9,874 for a reduction of 3,471 properties. We have 799 fewer properties than last month.

 

There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory available in Northeast Florida which is down 38% from August 2019 when there was a 3.7 months supply. A five to six month supply is considered a balanced market.

 

The inventory is down even with building permits rising. Building permits in the Jacksonville MSA are up about 6% year to date over the previous year even with COVID 19 slowing the process down. There were 7,823 permits issued through the eight months ending August. Most of the builders are selling their speculative homes before construction is finished.

 

The new listings in August 2020 from the NEFAR report are 3,441 homes. This is 4% fewer new listings than August 2019 and we are down 5% year to date. As new listings become available, they are going under contract quickly and many times with multiple offers.

 

There is a strong demand for homes in our market now. In addition to local buyers that want more space for working from home, schooling virtually, or more outdoor space, we have many people moving from other states. Some employers are allowing employees to work from home permanently or at least until mid-2021 and that allows employees to relocate to areas with better weather, more space, and lower taxes.

 

The strong demand and short supply of homes continues to drive prices higher. The median and average sales prices are up 8% and 9% respectively year-to-date. It also creates the perfect time to sell your home. If you are dreaming of a new or different home, please let us know and we can give you the guidance you need to make a good decision.

 

Davidson Cares is not making the mistake of doing nothing as mentioned in the quote. We have found a safe way with individual shoot times and no group gatherings to have our 5th Annual Davidson Cares Clay Day on October 29th. We would love for you to participate and support St. Augustine Youth Services, Investing in Kids and Builders Care with a donation, sponsorship, or as a shooter. Please go to DavidsonCares.com to get all of the information.

 

It is so nice to have sports back. I hope your favorite team has a great year. Thank you for your continued support of Davidson Realty, Davidson Property Management, and Davidson Cares!

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A Quick Market Update

August 20, 2020

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“You cannot shake hands with a clenched fist.”

Indira Gandhi

 

We are not supposed to shake hands while we are social distancing, but it still makes my heart happy when someone looks me in the eye and shakes my hand with both of theirs. I can feel the love and respect.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for July indicate it is a great time to sell your home. With record-low mortgage rates and low inventory of homes listed for sale, the homes coming on the market are going under contract very quickly.

 

There were 3,598 contracts written in July which is an increase of 21% over last July. We are up 4% year-to-date.

 

There were 3,514 closings in July which is an increase of 16% over last July. We are down slightly (1%) year-to-date but catching up quickly. Closings were less than the previous year in April and May but rebounded in June and continued to increase in July.

 

The median sales price of $265,000 is up 10% over last July. The average sales price of $325,665 is up 15% over last July. Both prices are up 8% year-to-date. It is very clear that we are not seeing decreased pricing because of COVID.

 

The inventory of homes for sale is 6,943 which is down 30% from last July. This is the lowest number of homes for sale since mid-2005. For perspective during 2007 in the great recession, we had approximately 20,000 homes for sale.

 

We have 2.5 months supply of inventory available. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months of inventory. Inventory is low even with increased permits being pulled by the local builders. There are 6,608 building permits in the Jacksonville MSA through July 2020 compared to 6,208 year-to-date in 2019.

 

We are seeing increased contracts, closings and prices while experiencing a low number of homes available for sale. All add up to a terrific time to sell your home.

 

Mark your calendar for our annual Davidson Cares Clay Day on October 29th. We have worked out a very safe way for everyone to shoot with no group gatherings. We will be supporting Builders Care, Investing in Kids! and St. Augustine Youth Services again. Please email me at sdavidson@davidsonrealtyinc.com if you would like to participate.

 

Stay safe and as always thank you for your support and referrals!

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