August 29, 2011

Northeast Florida Market Trends in July are Encouraging!

Posted by Sherry Davidson in Northeast Florida Market Trends

Opportunity dances with those who are already on the dance floor.
–H. Jackson Brown Jr.

danceIn my opinion, it is time to get on the dance floor. There are opportunities in great neighborhoods for investors, first time homebuyers and anyone in between. I am  feeling encouraged about the real estate market after reviewing the July market stats data produced by the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors. The pending sales are up; and the inventory numbers continue to improve. Quite possibly in the near future we may reach inventory stability which will lead first to stabilized pricing with a gradual increase in pricing.

The pending sales in July 2011 of 1,661 are up 18% over July 2010. The pending sales year to date for 2011 are 6% higher than year to date 2010. It is encouraging to see more contracts being written despite the continued turmoil in Washington.

Closings in July 2011 are 1% less than July 2010. This is not unusual since closings normally dip in July each year. Closings are also down from the previous month.

The average sales price in July 2011 is up 5% over July 2010; however, the July 2011 average sales price of $177,596 is down from the previous month average price of $184,166. The drop from last month doesn’t concern me because the average price normally varies each month. The overall pricing trend this year continues to be up.

The median sales price in July 2011 is down 5% from July 2010. The July 2011 median sales price of $130,199 is also down from the previous month’s price of $135,364. The July median price is higher than every month this year except June.

The consistent good news is that the inventory of homes for sale is down 30% from July 2010. The available inventory of homes in July 2011 of 11,529 homes is also down from 12,285 the previous month. The months supply of inventory is down to 8.2 months and continues to drop every month. (more…)

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July 28, 2011

Jacksonville, FL Real Estate Trends in June!

Posted by Sherry Davidson in Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Progress always involves risks. You can’t steal second base and keep your foot on first.” -Frederick B. Wilcox

I love baseball especially this time of year. I chose this quote because I am going to take a risk and predict that the northeast Florida real estate market will continue to improve. In reviewing the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats, I see monthly improvement in every area. Also, my office had the best month for closings since June 2008.

Let’s begin with prices. The average price in June is $181,700 which is 17% higher than January and has increased every month. The average sales price is 7% higher than last June.

The median price in June is $135,000 and has increased every month since February showing an increase of 12%. The median price is down 4% from last June.

June 2011 pending sales are up 34% over June 2010 and we are up 7% year-to-date over last year. (more…)

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May 31, 2011

Jacksonville FL Real Estate Statistics in April 2011

Posted by Sherry Davidson in Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Genius is the ability to reduce the complicated to the simple.”C. W. Ceram

The most successful people I know are able to simplify complicated issues. When I reviewed the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market statistics this month I struggled with how to simplify what seemed like some very conflicting information.  As with many issues dealt with in today’s business environment, the analytical complexity was a result of yet another “helpful” government program. Any statistical analysis comparing April, 2010 vs April, 2011 must factor in the 2009 homebuyer tax credit program. As you may recall, homebuyers were initially required to be under a contract by November 30, 2009 which was then extended to April 30, 2010. As a result, 2010 results were directly impacted by this program.

First let’s look at activity. Pending sales and closings for April look very good compared to recent months; however, when you compare them to April, 2010 pending sales are down 13.2% and closings are down 8.8%. To give a little perspective, closings are up 2% year to date over 2010.

In April, 51.1% of closings were distressed properties. That number is down from the previous three months when the percentage was closer to 60%.

Now we will look at pricing. The median sales price for April is down 8.1% when compared to last April; however the average sales price is up 1.7%. Due to the 2009 homebuyer tax credit program many of the closings last April were first time homebuyers. This year we are seeing more mid and higher priced properties selling. We will not see any strong improvement in prices until the distressed properties situation improves. (more…)

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April 28, 2011

Jacksonville FL Real Estate Trends – March 2011

Posted by Sherry Davidson in Northeast Florida Market Trends

“It’s not so important who starts the game but who finishes it. ”  John Wooden

This is one of my favorite quotes from the great coach John Wooden. It seems appropriate now because this economy has taken down a lot of good businesses. Many people still in the real estate business have commented to me that there is no way they would give up now after all they have been through. This spirit and determination is what makes this nation and this industry great.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market statistics for March continue to show good activity and lower prices. Pending sales of 1,909 homes for March, 2011 were up 3.9% over March, 2010; however, the current trend is more dramatic. The last 6 months of pending sales average 1,278 per month compared to 1,909 in March 2011. We have experienced this dramatic increase in our office and our April numbers may be close to March.

The closed sales for March, 2011 are down from March, 2010 by 7.1% but that doesn’t tell an accurate story. The March, 2010 number of 1,548 was substantially higher than all the previous months in 2010 and 2009 due to the federal tax credits. The March, 2011 number of closed sales of 1,438 was a higher number of closings than every month since June, 2010 except for 1 month. Overall we are showing an improvement in closings. I believe this is primarily a result of more confident buyers.

The average and median price declines continue and are directly tied to the continued increase, on a month-to-month bases, of lender-mediated sales. Traditional sales are down as a percentage on a month-to-month comparison and will remain that way in the future until we work our way out of the high volume of distressed property currently available. The good news is the median sales price of traditional sales was up 8.7% over March, 2010 while the median sales price of lender–mediated sales was down 13.2%. Total median sales price is down 10.9% compared to March, 2010 with a slight upward trend over February. In March, 57.4% of all closings were lender-mediated. (more…)

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February 23, 2011

Jacksonville FL Real Estate Trends in January 2011

Posted by Sherry Davidson in Northeast Florida Market Trends

 ”The path to our destination is not always a straight one. We go down
 the wrong road, we get lost, we turn back. Maybe it doesn’t matter
 which road we embark on. Maybe what matters is that we embark.”
        – Barbara Hall

We have embarked on a new year and January is already proving correct many predictions of ups and downs in the real estate market during 2011. See the table below for the latest Northeast Florida Association of Realtors statistics.

 

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011
Pending Sales

942

1,148

1,396
Closed Sales

701

921

993
Days on Market Until Sale

109

102

120
Median Sales Price

$155,000

$132,700

$120,750
Average Sales Price

$201,832

$164,825

$153,361
% of Original List Price Received

86.3%

88.6%

86.1%
Inventory of Homes for Sale

16,690

15,443

13,198
Months Supply of Inventory

15.9

12.3

9.4

As you can see, pending sales, closed sales, Inventory of homes for sale and months supply of inventory are all showing positive trends. There are more sales each year and less inventory.

The median and average sales prices are declining. One major reason for this decline is that a staggering 59% of all closings in January were short sales or foreclosures.

If you take a 12-month average of the average sales price for the most current year, you will see it comes to $169,465 which when compared to the previous year of $179,057 shows a 5.4% decline in pricing. This method helps to smooth out the bumps in pricing each month.

If you know of anyone that would like to buy, sell, or rent a home, please give me a call. I would love to take great care of any of your referrals.

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