August 29, 2011

Northeast Florida Market Trends in July are Encouraging!

Posted by Sherry Davidson in Northeast Florida Market Trends

Opportunity dances with those who are already on the dance floor.
–H. Jackson Brown Jr.

danceIn my opinion, it is time to get on the dance floor. There are opportunities in great neighborhoods for investors, first time homebuyers and anyone in between. I am  feeling encouraged about the real estate market after reviewing the July market stats data produced by the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors. The pending sales are up; and the inventory numbers continue to improve. Quite possibly in the near future we may reach inventory stability which will lead first to stabilized pricing with a gradual increase in pricing.

The pending sales in July 2011 of 1,661 are up 18% over July 2010. The pending sales year to date for 2011 are 6% higher than year to date 2010. It is encouraging to see more contracts being written despite the continued turmoil in Washington.

Closings in July 2011 are 1% less than July 2010. This is not unusual since closings normally dip in July each year. Closings are also down from the previous month.

The average sales price in July 2011 is up 5% over July 2010; however, the July 2011 average sales price of $177,596 is down from the previous month average price of $184,166. The drop from last month doesn’t concern me because the average price normally varies each month. The overall pricing trend this year continues to be up.

The median sales price in July 2011 is down 5% from July 2010. The July 2011 median sales price of $130,199 is also down from the previous month’s price of $135,364. The July median price is higher than every month this year except June.

The consistent good news is that the inventory of homes for sale is down 30% from July 2010. The available inventory of homes in July 2011 of 11,529 homes is also down from 12,285 the previous month. The months supply of inventory is down to 8.2 months and continues to drop every month. (more…)

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July 28, 2011

Jacksonville, FL Real Estate Trends in June!

Posted by Sherry Davidson in Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Progress always involves risks. You can’t steal second base and keep your foot on first.” -Frederick B. Wilcox

I love baseball especially this time of year. I chose this quote because I am going to take a risk and predict that the northeast Florida real estate market will continue to improve. In reviewing the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats, I see monthly improvement in every area. Also, my office had the best month for closings since June 2008.

Let’s begin with prices. The average price in June is $181,700 which is 17% higher than January and has increased every month. The average sales price is 7% higher than last June.

The median price in June is $135,000 and has increased every month since February showing an increase of 12%. The median price is down 4% from last June.

June 2011 pending sales are up 34% over June 2010 and we are up 7% year-to-date over last year. (more…)

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June 29, 2011

Jacksonville, FL Real Estate Trends in May 2011

Posted by Sherry Davidson in Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Life is not about how fast you run or how high you climb but how well you bounce” Vivian Komori

If you own a business or are connected to the real estate industry in any way, you will enjoy the quote.

The most important trend I am seeing this month is the drop in inventory. The inventory of homes for sale in May 2011 is down 25.8% from May 2010. This inventory level translates into 8.9 months of supply versus a 11.7 months supply for the same period last year. This is a 23.7% drop in inventory. In many popular neighborhoods there are very few properties available for purchase that aren’t already under contract. We need to monitor this trend in inventory levels to better advise both our purchasers and sellers with regard to the pricing outlook.

Pending sales are up. The May 2011 pending sales of 1,756 transactions is 33.9% higher than May 2010. The year-to-date pending sales are 3.3% higher than the same period in 2010. The number of homes going under contract (pending sales) tends to bounce around each month but May 2011 is tied with March, 2011 for the highest amount of pending sales in the last 21 months. Another positive outlook.

Closings are down 10.6% from last May; however, the number of closings year-to-date are up slightly over the same period in 2010. Between lender, appraisal and title issues, it is always cause for celebration when we get a transaction to closing.

Pricing continues to be down compared to the previous year. The median sales price is down 7.9% and the average sales price is down 3%. If you look a little closer, the median sales price of traditional sales is up over 5% and the median sales price of lender-mediated sales is down over 14%. I would also point out that in the northern St. Johns County area the average price currently seems have stabilized around the same price as 6 months ago.

The lender-mediated sales in May 2011 were 49% of closings for the month. If you think this number is high, remember that short sales and foreclosures made up 60% of the closings in February. I believe this number is down because the banks are being more careful with their foreclosure process due to the recent bad publicity.

To sum it up: inventory is down, the transaction activity is up and the prices overall are down year-to-year.

If you have any questions or need any assistance with real estate issues, please give me a call 904-940-5000. I always enjoy talking about real estate.

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May 31, 2011

Jacksonville FL Real Estate Statistics in April 2011

Posted by Sherry Davidson in Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Genius is the ability to reduce the complicated to the simple.”C. W. Ceram

The most successful people I know are able to simplify complicated issues. When I reviewed the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market statistics this month I struggled with how to simplify what seemed like some very conflicting information.  As with many issues dealt with in today’s business environment, the analytical complexity was a result of yet another “helpful” government program. Any statistical analysis comparing April, 2010 vs April, 2011 must factor in the 2009 homebuyer tax credit program. As you may recall, homebuyers were initially required to be under a contract by November 30, 2009 which was then extended to April 30, 2010. As a result, 2010 results were directly impacted by this program.

First let’s look at activity. Pending sales and closings for April look very good compared to recent months; however, when you compare them to April, 2010 pending sales are down 13.2% and closings are down 8.8%. To give a little perspective, closings are up 2% year to date over 2010.

In April, 51.1% of closings were distressed properties. That number is down from the previous three months when the percentage was closer to 60%.

Now we will look at pricing. The median sales price for April is down 8.1% when compared to last April; however the average sales price is up 1.7%. Due to the 2009 homebuyer tax credit program many of the closings last April were first time homebuyers. This year we are seeing more mid and higher priced properties selling. We will not see any strong improvement in prices until the distressed properties situation improves. (more…)

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April 28, 2011

Jacksonville FL Real Estate Trends – March 2011

Posted by Sherry Davidson in Northeast Florida Market Trends

“It’s not so important who starts the game but who finishes it. ”  John Wooden

This is one of my favorite quotes from the great coach John Wooden. It seems appropriate now because this economy has taken down a lot of good businesses. Many people still in the real estate business have commented to me that there is no way they would give up now after all they have been through. This spirit and determination is what makes this nation and this industry great.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market statistics for March continue to show good activity and lower prices. Pending sales of 1,909 homes for March, 2011 were up 3.9% over March, 2010; however, the current trend is more dramatic. The last 6 months of pending sales average 1,278 per month compared to 1,909 in March 2011. We have experienced this dramatic increase in our office and our April numbers may be close to March.

The closed sales for March, 2011 are down from March, 2010 by 7.1% but that doesn’t tell an accurate story. The March, 2010 number of 1,548 was substantially higher than all the previous months in 2010 and 2009 due to the federal tax credits. The March, 2011 number of closed sales of 1,438 was a higher number of closings than every month since June, 2010 except for 1 month. Overall we are showing an improvement in closings. I believe this is primarily a result of more confident buyers.

The average and median price declines continue and are directly tied to the continued increase, on a month-to-month bases, of lender-mediated sales. Traditional sales are down as a percentage on a month-to-month comparison and will remain that way in the future until we work our way out of the high volume of distressed property currently available. The good news is the median sales price of traditional sales was up 8.7% over March, 2010 while the median sales price of lender–mediated sales was down 13.2%. Total median sales price is down 10.9% compared to March, 2010 with a slight upward trend over February. In March, 57.4% of all closings were lender-mediated. (more…)

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