I thought I would start 2012 by sharing my favorite quote and an optimistic attitude that we will continue to see stabilization and improvement in the real estate market. The main reason I predict continued improvement is the tightening of inventory.

The numbers are drastic enough to tell the story. At the end of 2010 there were 14,510 active properties for sale compared to 9,902 properties available at the end of 2011. That is a 32% decline in inventory. The “months supply of inventory” dropped from 10.6 months supply at the end of 2010 to 6.7 months supply at the end of 2011. A 5 to 6 months supply indicates a balanced market. The inventory declined the most (45%) in the under $150,000 price range but declined by 41% in the $500,000 to $999,999 price range.

A more practical example of the decline in inventory is how often my agents tell me stories about a customer liking a home and calling back a few days later to move forward with a purchase only to find out the home is under contract.

I know there is a lot of pent up demand of people that would like to sell their homes. The normal progression should be tightening of inventory, causing prices to rise, causing more sellers to list their homes. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out during 2012.

The pending sales from the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors Market Stats are up 24.5% in December 2011 compared to December 2010. We averaged 1,468 pending sales per month in 2011 compared to 1,375 per month in 2010 for a 7% increase. There were 1,471 pending sales in December 2011. The price range with the strongest increase in sales was $500,000- $999,999.

There were 16,550 closings in 2011 compared to 16,214 in 2010 for a 2% increase. Davidson Realty finished 2011 with a 20% increase in our closings compared to 2010.

The median sales price in 2011 averaged $127,900 which was down 6% from the $135,900 median sales price average in 2010. The average sales price in 2011 was $168,887 which was down less than 1% from the $170,906 average in 2010.

Metro Market Trends Report on 2011 Real Estate Activity for St. Johns County indicates there were 1,419 pre-foreclosure filings (Lis Pendens) in 2011 which was a 37% decline. Actual foreclosures were down by 40%. I keep getting conflicting information about foreclosures but this information is factual and very good news.

Please feel free to give me a call if you have questions about the real estate market. I love to hear from you and always enjoy hearing your thoughts. Since I am starting the year with optimism, I am staffing up to meet the increased demand we will see in 2012. If you know of any great agents looking for a new opportunity or anyone interested in a career in real estate, please let me know. Happy New Year!

“Something I learned early in college is to not worry about what I can’t control…But what I can control is my attitude, my effort, my focus every single day and that’s what I’m trying to worry about.”

We certainly can’t control the real estate market but we can control how we respond to the changes in trends. Fortunately, the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for November show continued improvement in almost all measured areas. The inventory continues to decrease. The number of properties available in the Multiple Listing Service in active status at the end of the month dropped 31% from November 2010 to November 2011. There were 15,498 properties available last year and 10,722 available this year. The number of available properties has dropped every month this year.

The months supply of inventory at 7.4 months is 35 percent less than November 2010 when we had 11.4 months of inventory. The price range with the largest percentage decrease is the $500,000-$999,999 with a 45% decrease. The months supply for this price range went from 28 months to 15 months.

The pending sales increased in November by 10% over November 2010. For the last 12 months we have averaged 1,460 pending sales per month compared to 1,368 for the previous 12 months for a 6.6% increase.

The closings in November 2011 were up 5% over November 2010. The traditional closings increased by 7% and the lender-mediated closings increased by 2%.We have closed 15,089 properties year to date compared to 14,475 in 2010 for a 2.3% increase. The number of closings in November was less than the previous 9 months numbers, but December looks like a strong month for closings in our office.

The median sales price in November of $130,000 is down 7.7% from the November 2010 price of $140,900. If you break the median sales price down further, the traditional transactions median price is $175,000 with no change from last November and the lender-mediated median price is $85,009 which is down 5.5% from last November.

The average sales price in November of $161,302 is down 12.4% from $184,124 in November 2010. The year to date average sales price is only down .5% from year to date in 2010.

I am sticking by my prediction that we are beginning to see a recovery in the housing market and believe it or not, I have actually had a couple of people agree with me lately. Remember, you can control your attitude, your effort and your focus. If you do, you will have an amazing 2012. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year and keep on “Tebowing”. A little divine intervention can’t hurt!

Everything has changed over the past few years and we have to learn to adapt. Some things haven’t changed though so when we see declining inventory and improved sales, you might well expect an improvement in the future housing market, especially if we can continue adding jobs in the northeast Florida area. I know the job growth has been slow but our area has started to see growth.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market statistics for October, 2011 continue to show encouraging trends in the market. The pending sales are up 37.5% over October, 2010. The 12 month average for the most recent 12 months is 1,463 pending sales per month compared to 1,357 for the previous 12 months which is an increase of almost 8%.

The inventory of homes for sale in October, 2011 was 10,964 down 31.5% from 15,995 in October, 2010. The inventory has dropped consistently for the last 12 months. The largest drop in inventory is in the less than $150,000 price range at 36.5% however the $500,000 to $999,999 price range also dropped 28.5%. Of particular interest is that over the last year the price range hardest hit in our area ($500,000 – $999,999) has seen the strongest increase in sales with a 30.6% increase.

Closings in October 2011 were up 6.2% over October 2010; however, year to date closings for 2011 are only up 1.7% over 2010. Closings were down in October from the previous few months, but a similar drop in closings happened in October 2010. With stronger pending sales and fewer transactions falling through, the closings should improve.

I still believe pricing in our market is stabilizing. The median sales price year to date in 2011 is down 6% from the year to date price in 2010. The median price improved slightly to $127,800 in October from $124,000 in September. The average median price for the last 12 months is $129,000.

The average price in October 2011 is down 3.5% from October 2010. The 12 month average price for the most recent 12 months is $170,804 compared to $169,103 for the previous 12 months which is a 1% increase.

The final two stats I will mention are the months supply of inventory is at 7.7 months in October 2011 compared to 11.6 months in October 2010. It is also down from 8.2 months in September 2011. A normal market is 5 to 6 months of inventory. The share of closings in October 2011 that were lender mediated is at 45.7% which is down from the peak of 60% in January 2011.

Our business is built on referrals and I would truly appreciate any referral of someone you know that needs to buy or sell real estate. I wish you Happy Holidays and new beginnings in 2012.

This is a profound statement by Sam Walton and very appropriate today. There are a lot of bright people focused on making it through the day instead of looking forward.

The one consistent story in the market statistics produced by the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors for September is the inventory of homes for sale continues to drop. There were 16,280 active properties for sale in September 2010 and there are 32% less properties (11,011) in September 2011.The inventory has dropped every month in the past year. The months supply of inventory is at 7.7 months supply compared to 11.6 months in September 2010, a 34% decrease. The inventory reductions we are seeing should lead to increased pricing in the future.

Pending sales in September 2011 are up 24% over September 2010. The year to date pending sales for  2011 are up 7% over year to date 2010. The North Florida market has averaged 1,450 pending sales a month for the last 12 months compared to a 1,385 average for the previous 12 months.

There were 1,315 closed sales in September 2011 which is 1% more than September 2010. The year to date 2011 closings are also up about 1% over last year. The closings in September were down a little from the previous 6 months for the north Florida market; however Davidson Realty had more closings in September than any other month this year except for June.

The median sales price in September 2011 of $124,000 is almost 5% less than $130,000 median sales price in September 2010. The month to month median price fluctuates every month and is down in September. However, the average sales price of $172,722 in September 2011 is up 4% over the average sales price of $165,747 in September 2010.

The average sales price for single family homes in the following zip codes is:
          Up slightly to $213,300 in 32092/World Golf Village area
          Up slightly to $261,084 in 32095/Palencia area
          Down slightly to $268,012 in 32259/Julington Creek area
          Up slightly to $604,325 in 32082/Ponte Vedra area

We are in the beginning stages of a real estate recovery. After 4 years of declining sales and closings, our Company is $7 million ahead of 2010 in year to date closings. It may not be large but it is sure nice to see a positive trend in pending sales, closings and inventory.

Please let me know if I can assist anyone you know with their real estate needs. Enjoy the World Series, it will be a long time until spring training and baseball are back.

The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it. – Michelangelo

I chose this quote because it seems as if our recent economic challenge has put many people in survival mode. Survival mode can distract us from our long term goals.  We must not think this way but keep reaching for the stars.

I will share an overview of the market stats provided by the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors starting with Pending Sales. August 2011 pending sales of 1,744 is 24% higher than August 2010 sales of 1,402. There have been some confusing monthly comparisons because of the tax credits last year, but the year to date pending sales for 2011 are 7% higher than year to date pending sales for 2010.

The closings for August 2011 are up 1.5% over the closings in August 2010 and the year to date closings for 2011 are almost the same as 2010. I would like to go a little deeper into closings and share that there were 691 traditional closings in August 2010 and 835 in August 2011 for an increase of 21%. The lender–mediated closings dropped from 729 in August 2010 to 626 in August 2011 for a 14% decrease. This is a very good sign when we have more traditional closings and less distressed closings.

The lender-mediated closings dropped from 44.3% of July 2011 closings to 42.8% of August 2011 closings. We continue to move in the right direction.

The median sales price in August 2011 is $138,000 up 2% over August 2010 price of $135,000. We began the year in January 2011 with a median sales price of $122,000 and we have seen a consistent trend up each month, with a couple of small dips, to reach the $138,000 median sales price in August.

The average sales price trend is similar. The average sales price in August 2011 of $180,823 is up almost 7% over the August 2010 price of $169,658. The year started in January with an average sales price of $154,558 and has climbed pretty steadily to reach the August number of $180,823.

The inventory of homes for sale continues to drop which is a positive trend . There were 16,464 properties for sale in August 2010 and there are only 11,167 properties for sale in August 2011 for a 32% decrease. The months supply of inventory has dropped from 11.8 months supply in August 2010 to a 7.9 months supply in August 2011 for a 33% decrease. A 6 months supply is considered a balanced market.

The percent of original list price received in August 2011 is 88.9% up slightly from 88.7% in August 2010.

I continue to see positive trends in activity and prices appear to be stabilizing. The rental market continues to see great activity with higher lease rates. It is a terrific time to make a real estate investment. 

Baseball season is winding down and football season is starting strong. I hope your team does well especially if you are pulling for the Atlanta Braves, the Florida Gators, or the Jacksonville Jaguars. I am always looking for great agents to add to our team at Davidson Realty. If you know of anyone considering a real estate career, I would love to speak with them – (904) 940-5000 or SDavidson@DavidsonRealtyInc.Com