October 31, 2017

Jacksonville Real Estate Trends in September – Irma Recovery & 2018 Housing Predictions!

“Change before you have to.” Jack Welch

We had finally settled into a more stable real estate market this year without quite so many wild swings, and then Irma decided to pay us a visit. Change is always coming.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for September show new listings down 21% and closed sales down 25% which are the most obvious impacts from Irma. We were stuck in a holding pattern waiting for the storm for days and then with the aftermath clean up and repairs, fewer people listed their home for sale. Closings were delayed due to insurance issues, re-inspections and repairs.

There were 1,973 pending sales in September which was down 10% from last September, but we are up 3% year to date. Our office is up 12% in year to date sales over last year. We are continuing to see strong buyer activity.

I am already seeing some predictions for 2018. “New homes are expected to be a “primary driver of sales in 2018” as 1.33 million housing starts are predicted next year – up from 1.22 million in 2017, according to Freddie Mac’s September Outlook report, which gauges future real estate activity. Total home sales are expected to increase about 2 percent from 2017 to 2018, according to the report.” They are predicting a 4.9 percent increase in home prices in 2018.

The median sales price in northeast Florida for September was $208,000 which is up 10% from last September. We are up 10% year to date. The average sales price of $247,291 is up 6% from last September and up 8% year to date.

The inventory of homes for sale dropped 22% to 7,985 homes. The months supply of inventory dropped 23% to 3.4 months. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months of inventory so it is a good time to sell. I believe we will continue to see a low inventory of homes for sale for quite some time.

National builder confidence was up 4 points in October even though they are facing labor and material shortages due to storms and fires. The component gauging current sales conditions rose five points to 75, the index charting sales expectations in the next six months increased five points to 78, and the component measuring buyer traffic ticked up a single point to 48.

I see a continued strong northeast Florida real estate market even though there were some bumps in the numbers in September. Please let me know if we can assist you with any real estate needs.

I want to thank our sponsors for Davidson Cares “Shooting for SAYS” event. We raised $35,000 for St. Augustine Youth Services and we raised $1500 for the St. Johns Housing Partnership with our silent auction. There are so many generous people in northeast Florida. Thank you so much!

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Florida Licensed Real Estate Broker